{"id":69207,"date":"2026-10-05T06:45:21","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:45:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/week-ahead-weak-us-jobs-shift-fed-outlook-as-gold-usd-and-sp-500-react\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T06:45:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:45:21","slug":"week-ahead-weak-us-jobs-shift-fed-outlook-as-gold-usd-and-sp-500-react","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/featured\/week-ahead-weak-us-jobs-shift-fed-outlook-as-gold-usd-and-sp-500-react\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Hafta: Zay\u0131f ABD \u0130stihdam Verileri Fed Beklentilerini De\u011fi\u015ftirirken Alt\u0131n, Dolar ve S&#038;P 500 Tepki Veriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-discover-12-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69906\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Genel Bak\u0131\u015f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Eyl\u00fcl ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 ayl\u0131k yeni istihdam) yaln\u0131zca 29 bin artt\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ekim\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NFP sonras\u0131 ilk fiyat hareketleri her piyasada kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. ABD tahvil faizleri (Hazine tahvillerinin getirisi) yeniden y\u00fckselince alt\u0131n ve Bitcoin ilk kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi; ABD hisseleri ise daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc) faiz beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fime duyarl\u0131. Dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flarsa EURUSD ve GBPUSD toparlanma \u015fans\u0131 bulabilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USDJPY i\u00e7in ABD hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc verilerini, Fed toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve tahvil faizlerini; ayr\u0131ca Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Beklentisi D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk tam haftas\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2019de belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flayan istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/5-steps-to-trade-forex-on-news-releases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fiyatlamas\u0131yla<\/a> ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl NFP yaln\u0131zca 29 bin artt\u0131; piyasa beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 bindi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,1\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131) ayl\u0131k bazda sadece %0,1 y\u00fckseldi. Revizyonlar (ge\u00e7mi\u015f verilerin sonradan d\u00fczeltilmesi) da tabloyu zay\u0131flatt\u0131: A\u011fustos istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 162 binden 133 bine indirildi; Temmuz ve A\u011fustos toplam\u0131nda revizyonla 60 bin istihdam kayb\u0131 olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rapor, hafta i\u00e7inde ba\u015flayan e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 256 bin azalarak 7,079 milyona indi. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck PCE enflasyonu (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi: Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) da Fed \u00fczerindeki \u201chemen faiz art\u0131r\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bond traders pared back their expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month on indications of weakness in the US labor market <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/19EPODQqGQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/19EPODQqGQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2106044101430804728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Piyasa beklentileri h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Ekim\u2019de bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019e yak\u0131nd\u0131. Zay\u0131f veriler geldik\u00e7e yakla\u015f\u0131k %38\u2019e geriledi, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam raporundan sonra da %22 civar\u0131na indi. \u015eimdi piyasalar \u015fu soruya odakland\u0131: Enflasyon, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve uzun vadeli ABD tahvil faizleri y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken zay\u0131f istihdam verisi faiz beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmaya yeter mi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFP Faiz Beklentisini De\u011fi\u015ftirdi, Tahvil Faizleri Tepkiyi Kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zay\u0131f istihdam verisi, ek parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) beklentisini azaltt\u0131. ABD tahvil faizleri ilk etapta d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131; alt\u0131n, Bitcoin ve ABD hisseleri y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ancak <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/how-to-read-the-10-year-treasury-yield-chart\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi<\/a> NFP sonras\u0131 %5,16\u2019ya geriledikten sonra seans i\u00e7inde yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar oda\u011f\u0131 tekrar enflasyon riskine, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na, kamu borcu endi\u015fesine ve Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma\/ihra\u00e7 miktar\u0131na (tahvil arz\u0131) \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why surging Treasury yields don\u2019t signal a U.S. &#39;fiscal apocalypse&#39; \u2014 yet <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gBzhgst2KH\">https:\/\/t.co\/gBzhgst2KH<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBC\/status\/2106931289680916646?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu durum iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir tablo yaratt\u0131. Piyasalar Fed\u2019in Ekim\u2019de faizi art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na daha az inan\u0131yor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n uzun vadeli enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde ayn\u0131 rahatl\u0131k olu\u015fmad\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli Fed beklentileri yumu\u015fak kal\u0131rken uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri y\u00fcksek seyrederse dolar geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 destek bulmakta zorlanabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k alt\u0131n ve teknoloji hisseleri gibi faize duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klar d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ABD Dolar\u0131, NFP Sonras\u0131 Yeniden Fiyatlamada Testte<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD Dolar Endeksi, i\u015flemcilerin Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini azaltmas\u0131yla, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin hemen ard\u0131ndan 102,00 civar\u0131ndan 101,66\u2019ya geriledi. Tahvil faizleri toparlan\u0131nca endeks 101,92\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi; yine de NFP \u00f6ncesi seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. G\u00f6reli faiz farklar\u0131, ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi (dalgal\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde dolara y\u00f6nelim) ve uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/why-does-dxy-rise-in-uncertain-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fiyatlaman\u0131n temel par\u00e7alar\u0131<\/a> olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The dollar fell to a session low on Friday after a report showed the US added fewer jobs than expected in September, leading traders to trim bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/y1IM1GpVd1\">https:\/\/t.co\/y1IM1GpVd1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2106076790728847776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USDX daha \u00f6nceki 101,473 tepe seviyesinin (swing high: k\u0131sa vadeli belirgin zirve) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yeniden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 101,00\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareket sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Endeks y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tepkisi i\u00e7in izlenecek bir sonraki b\u00f6lge 102,55.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc, ana d\u00f6viz paritelerini de etkileyebilir. EURUSD bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; ancak dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse toparlanma deneyebilir. Yukar\u0131da ilk izlenecek b\u00f6lge 1,1350. Sat\u0131\u015flar s\u00fcrerse 1,1200\u20131,1150 band\u0131 destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunabilece\u011fi alan) b\u00f6lgesi. GBPUSD ge\u00e7en hafta yeni dip yapt\u0131. Genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 1,3380\u2019e do\u011fru toparlanmaya alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor; ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften \u00f6nce 1,31393 alt\u0131na sarkma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alt\u0131n, Fed Beklentisinden Destek Buluyor; Tahvil Faizleri Engel<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold Rises as Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Data Tempers Rate-Hike Bets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF\">https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2106925391101219173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/xau-usd-trading-a-beginners-guide-to-gold-vs-us-dollar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alt\u0131n<\/a>, zay\u0131f istihdam raporuna ilk etapta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tepki verdi. Tahvil faizleri ve dolar gerilerken fiyat yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>4.185 dolardan 4.227 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine<\/strong> \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, faiz getirmeyen bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (alt\u0131n) elde tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetinin\u201d (faiz kazanma f\u0131rsat\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7me) azalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. Tahvil faizleri toparlan\u0131nca alt\u0131n sert d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve <strong>4.125\u20134.140<\/strong> b\u00f6lgesine geriledi. Alt\u0131n \u015fu an iki z\u0131t etki aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda: Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fcksek uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (grafik seviyeleri), alt\u0131n yataya ba\u011flay\u0131p toparlan\u0131rsa izlenecek ana \u00fcst b\u00f6lgenin <strong>4.280<\/strong> oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Fiyat \u00f6nce <strong>4.111,31<\/strong> alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa bu seviye \u00f6nemini azalt\u0131r. Sat\u0131\u015flar derinle\u015firse, rapor <strong>4.080<\/strong> seviyesini al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fi bir sonraki b\u00f6lge olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500, D\u00fc\u015fen Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Riskini Olumlu Kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD hisse senetleri, Fed beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fime daha olumlu tepki verdi. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/sp-500-trading-guide\/\">S&amp;P 500<\/a>, NFP sonras\u0131 <strong>7.675\u2019ten 7.750\u2019nin \u00fczerine<\/strong> s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Sonras\u0131nda kazanc\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verse de <strong>7.720<\/strong> civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131 ve veri \u00f6ncesi seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Endeks Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>%0,7<\/strong> y\u00fckselirken Nasdaq yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>%1,2<\/strong> artt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US stocks recovered from early losses to close slightly higher, with the S&amp;P 500 bouncing from a two-week low as a global bond selloff reversed course after sending US Treasury yields to multi-decade highs. Lisa Bernhard reports <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Kqd3P9o0WL\">https:\/\/t.co\/Kqd3P9o0WL<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8D05e2hjSA\">pic.twitter.com\/8D05e2hjSA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2105809990854615068?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu tepki, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 \u201ckontroll\u00fc\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece hisse yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bunu destekleyici g\u00f6rmeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc zay\u0131f istihdam, ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken ekonomide sert daralma sinyali vermedi\u011finde hisselere yarayabilir. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bozulursa odak, hanehalk\u0131 harcamas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u015eimdilik S&amp;P 500, <strong>7.635<\/strong> b\u00f6lgesinden yine olumlu tepki verdi. Bir s\u00fcre yatay seyir (konsolidasyon), endeksin yeniden \u00fcst seviyeleri test etmesini sa\u011flayabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n tahvil faizlerini izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi \u00f6nemli; uzun vadeli faizlerde yeni bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde (faize duyarl\u0131 \u015firketler) de\u011ferlemeleri yeniden bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin, NFP Sonras\u0131 Y\u00fckseli\u015fini Geri Verdi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/what-is-bitcoin-a-beginners-guide-to-bitcoin-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BTCUSD<\/a>, ABD piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131na yak\u0131n <strong>87.165 dolar<\/strong> civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 art\u0131da seyretti; istihdam verisi sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine <strong>87.220 dolara<\/strong> yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan hareket sert \u015fekilde tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve Bitcoin <strong>84.000 dolar<\/strong> b\u00f6lgesine geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hisselerin aksine Bitcoin, \u015firket k\u00e2r\u0131 \u00fcretmez. Bu nedenle faizlerle ili\u015fkisi \u201ciskonto\u201d hesab\u0131ndan de\u011fil; likidite (piyasadaki para bollu\u011fu), dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00fczerinden kurulur. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beklenen faizler finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 gev\u015fetip riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131rabilir. Ancak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, tek ba\u015f\u0131na daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az e\u011filimli) Fed beklentisinin ralliyi ta\u015f\u0131maya yetmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BTC\u2019nin <strong>82.085<\/strong> \u00e7evresinde destek bulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan teknik yap\u0131 \u00f6nemini koruyor. Bitcoin yeniden d\u00fc\u015ferse, <strong>78.450<\/strong> ve <strong>76.450<\/strong> al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fi bir sonraki b\u00f6lgeler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDJPY\u2019de Odak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na Kayd\u0131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu hafta piyasaya bir ba\u015fka merkez bankas\u0131 temas\u0131 da yen \u00fczerinden ekleniyor. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/a-complete-guide-to-vt-markets-forex-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USDJPY<\/a> <strong>158,75<\/strong> seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi ve yeniden yataya ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The yen weakened against the dollar after a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan\u2019s September meeting disappointed investors looking for signs that policymakers may be preparing for another move this month <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1OPs0LXqrO\">https:\/\/t.co\/1OPs0LXqrO<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2105518070613586358?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 1, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u015eimdi dikkatler, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc konu\u015fmas\u0131 planlanan BOJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda\u2019ya \u00e7evriliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6zellikle Japonya\u2019da kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonras\u0131 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n faiz patikas\u0131yla ilgili ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 arayacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USDJPY\u2019de parite zay\u0131flarsa a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ilk izlenecek b\u00f6lge <strong>155,85<\/strong>. Fiyat yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc devam ederse <strong>160,25<\/strong> \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi durdurabilecek alan). Bu b\u00f6lgenin test edilmesi, son d\u00f6nemdeki bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in daha fazla dikkat \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0130zlenecek Ana Semboller<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">XAUUSD | USDX | SP500 | BTCUSD | USDJPY<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yakla\u015fan G\u00fcndem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Tarih<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Para Birimi<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Veri \/ Etkinlik<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Beklenti<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u00d6nceki<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Analist Notu<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5 Eki<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ISM Hizmet PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi: hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">55.1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">55.4<\/td><td>Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc verisi, zay\u0131f istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret edip etmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterebilir. \u0130stihdam ve fiyat alt kalemleri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6 Eki<\/td><td>JPY<\/td><td>BOJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda Konu\u015fuyor<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td>Enflasyon, yen ve BOJ\u2019un bir sonraki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma zamanlamas\u0131na dair y\u00f6nlendirme aranacak.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8 Eki<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>FOMC Toplant\u0131 Tutanaklar\u0131 (Fed\u2019in karar metninin detaylar\u0131)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">N\/A<\/td><td>Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyon riskini nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi ve ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma gerek\u00e7eleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Haftan\u0131n \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan Hareketleri<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">XAUUSD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bed7c2a5.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Alt\u0131n yatay seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, 4280 b\u00f6lgesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki (sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131) izlenebilir. Ancak fiyat 4280\u2019i test etmeden \u00f6nce 4111,31\u2019in alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa bu b\u00f6lgeyi referans almay\u0131n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse, 4080 b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki (al\u0131m ilgisi) aranabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDX<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bef5d3a9.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX, 101,473 seviyesindeki \u00f6nceki tepenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket bekleniyor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NFP\u2019nin daha zay\u0131f bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle USDX\u2019in d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyordu, ancak hareket kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyatlamada sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenip g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedi\u011fini izleyin. Sat\u0131\u015f gelirse 101,00 \u00e7evresindeki tepki takip edilmeli.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiyat y\u00fckselirse, 102,55 b\u00f6lgesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki izlenebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SP500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bf129086.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SP500, izlenen 7635 b\u00f6lgesinden bir kez daha yukar\u0131 tepki verdi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiyat yatay seyre ge\u00e7erse, SP500 yeniden yukar\u0131 hareket edebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BTCUSD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bitcoin-image-1024x576.png\" alt=\"bitcoin trading chart\" class=\"wp-image-69924\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTC, izlenen 82085 b\u00f6lgesinde destek buldu.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BTC d\u00fc\u015ferse, 78450 veya 76450 b\u00f6lgelerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki aranabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDJPY<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac31bf45c06f.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDJPY 158,75\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi ve fiyat\u0131 daha fazla yataya zorlad\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse, 155,85 b\u00f6lgesindeki tepki izlenmeli.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiyat daha da y\u00fckselirse, 160,25 b\u00f6lgesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki aranabilir. Bu seviye USDJPY i\u00e7in kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sonu\u00e7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eyl\u00fcl istihdam raporu, Fed\u2019in k\u0131sa vadeli duru\u015funu yeniden \u015fekillendirdi. Yaln\u0131zca 29 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, Ekim\u2019de yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak varl\u0131klar aras\u0131 tepki net de\u011fil; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc uzun vadeli ABD tahvil faizleri enflasyon, enerji ve kamu maliyesi risklerini yans\u0131tmaya devam ediyor. Bu nedenle haftan\u0131n ana belirleyeni tahvil faizleri olacak. Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p alt\u0131n, hisseler ve di\u011fer riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Faizlerin yeniden y\u00fckselmesi ise Fed Ekim\u2019de beklemede kalsa bile ters y\u00f6nde bir fiyatlama yaratabilir. ISM hizmet verisi, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 bu haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndem maddeleri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>SSS<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eyl\u00fcl NFP raporundan sonra ABD dolar\u0131 neden geriledi?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD dolar\u0131 ilk etapta zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Eyl\u00fcl NFP yaln\u0131zca 29 bin artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 binlik beklentinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik de %4,1\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu zay\u0131f istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in Ekim\u2019de yeniden faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini azaltt\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faiz deste\u011fini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verisi Fed i\u00e7in ne anlama geliyor?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eyl\u00fcl istihdam raporu, Fed\u2019in Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasan\u0131n Ekim\u2019de ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 seviyesinden, NFP sonras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %22\u2019ye indi. Ancak enflasyon verileri, tahvil faizleri ve gelecek ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 bu hafta y\u00fckselebilir mi?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha az agresif (daha az faiz art\u0131ran) bir Fed\u2019i fiyatlarken, ABD tahvil faizleri ve dolar gerilerse alt\u0131n destek bulabilir. Ancak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, yaln\u0131zca faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin d\u00fc\u015fmesinin yeterli olmayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. NFP sonras\u0131 alt\u0131n 4.227 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ard\u0131ndan tahvil faizleri toparlan\u0131nca geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verisinden sonra S&amp;P 500 neden y\u00fckseldi?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P 500, zay\u0131f istihdam verisinin Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle destek buldu. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beklenen faizler, hisse de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltabilir. Ancak i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha sert bir bozulma olursa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na daha fazla odaklanarak bu ili\u015fki tersine d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bu hafta Bitcoin\u2019i neler hareket ettirebilir?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin, k\u00fcresel likiditeye, ABD faiz beklentilerine, dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcne ve genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131. BTCUSD NFP sonras\u0131 87.220 dolara yakla\u015fsa da sonras\u0131nda 84.000 dolar b\u00f6lgesine geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/trade-now\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de NFP \u015foku: Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de istihdam 29 binle \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, i\u015fsizlik %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Fed\u2019in Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %22\u2019ye indi. Tahvil faizi y\u00fckselince alt\u0131n ve Bitcoin geri verdi, hisseler diren\u00e7li.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ABD\u2019de NFP \u015foku: Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de istihdam 29 binle \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, i\u015fsizlik %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Fed\u2019in Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %22\u2019ye indi. 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