{"id":69129,"date":"2026-09-30T02:52:34","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T02:52:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/katayama-flags-yen-undervaluation-as-japan-and-us-step-up-coordination-usd-jpy-hovers-near-157\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T02:52:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T02:52:34","slug":"katayama-flags-yen-undervaluation-as-japan-and-us-step-up-coordination-usd-jpy-hovers-near-157","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/katayama-flags-yen-undervaluation-as-japan-and-us-step-up-coordination-usd-jpy-hovers-near-157\/","title":{"rendered":"Katayama yenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferlenmesine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; Japonya ve ABD koordinasyonu art\u0131r\u0131rken USD\/JPY 157 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Katayama, genel olarak de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda kalan yenin bir sorun te\u015fkil etti\u011fini belirterek, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Bessent ile 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yapt\u0131klar\u0131 telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinde i\u015f birli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme konusunda mutab\u0131k kald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131; d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenini korumak i\u00e7in Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n temas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn i\u00e7i band\u0131 i\u00e7inde 157,00 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde kapand\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son yen al\u0131m\u0131 m\u00fcdahale turu 30 Temmuz\u2019da, para biriminin yakla\u015f\u0131k k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (MoF) rekor 15,4 trilyon yen harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; parite \u015fu anda bu ad\u0131m\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyenin yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 yen alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n

Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de politika faizini %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckselterek 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019in faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,75\u2013%4,00 seviyesinde bulunuyor; bu fark, y\u00fcksek getirili ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 almak i\u00e7in yen cinsinden bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 destekliyor. Fark\u0131n Fed band\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na kadar kapanmas\u0131, BoJ\u2019un \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k 10 ek ad\u0131m\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Beklenen veriler aras\u0131nda Sal\u0131 23:50 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (tahmin: y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3; \u00f6nceki: %4), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 27 A\u011fustos\u201328 Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin MoF m\u00fcdahale rakamlar\u0131 ve 23:50 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlanacak Tankan anketi (b\u00fcy\u00fck imalat\u00e7\u0131lar endeksi: 22\u2019den 25\u2019e) yer al\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe 23:30 GMT\u2019de ise Tokyo T\u00dcFE (taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4 (\u00f6nceki: %1,8) ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %2,4 bekleniyor. Grafiklerde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) 158,00\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 ayr\u0131ca 159,00 civar\u0131nda. Destekler 157,00 ard\u0131ndan 156,50 ve 156,00\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda. Stokastik RSI 73 seviyesinde; 158,50 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f \u201cge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme\u201d sinyali olarak i\u015faretleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

Trading Recommendations and Strategy<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131, ilk etapta 156,50\u2019ye ve devam\u0131nda 156,00\u2019a do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedeflemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite \u015fu anda 157,00 civar\u0131nda seyretse de, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir yene y\u00f6nelik net rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli momentum pariteyi 158,00 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131rsa, y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n

Bu negatif (ay\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc desteklemek i\u00e7in, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla 1,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki d\u00f6viz rezervleriyle desteklenen \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mali \u201cate\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne\u201d sahip oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyoruz. Bu, Tokyo\u2019nun Temmuz\u2019daki zay\u0131fl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 15,4 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahale stratejisini tekrarlamas\u0131na rahatl\u0131kla olanak tan\u0131r. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri Eyl\u00fcl sonlar\u0131nda fiilen yen al\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyarsa, Tokyo\u2019nun bu seviyeyi aktif bi\u00e7imde savundu\u011funu teyit edecektir. <\/p>\n\n

Macroeconomic and Technical Backdrop<\/h3>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca, makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm BoJ faizinin %1,25 ile 31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde bulunmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Fed\u2019in %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Daha dar getiri fark\u0131, tarihsel olarak fark\u0131n %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde bask\u0131n olan klasik yen ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015fleminin (carry trade) k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalt\u0131yor. Tokyo\u2019nun yakla\u015fan enflasyon verisinin %2,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesinin beklenmesiyle, piyasada ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 73 seviyesine y\u00fckselen g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce son bir yukar\u0131 hamle daha g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimize i\u015faret ediyor. Sermayemizi korumak i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlemeliyiz; zira 158,50 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f bu k\u0131sa pozisyon senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 157,00 alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu h\u0131zland\u0131rarak 156,00 taban\u0131na do\u011fru hareketi desteklemelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yen alarm\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: Japonya, zay\u0131f yenle m\u00fccadelede ABD ile koordinasyonu art\u0131r\u0131yor. USD\/JPY 157 civar\u0131nda; m\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 158 diren\u00e7, 156,50-156 hedefli short stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t