Avustralya\u2019da 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iterken, NZD\/USD mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131nda ilk kez 0,5650\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA), nakit faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 oybirli\u011fiyle 2011\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %4,60\u2019a y\u00fckseltti; ancak a\u00e7\u0131klama, ekonomide yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti. Piyasalar toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde May\u0131s 2027\u2019ye kadar nakit faizin %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Ba\u015fkan Bullock, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya daha az ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu ima etti. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ise Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ), 2 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci art\u0131\u015fla Resm\u00ee Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OCR) %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; bu toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ekim hamlesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, RBNZ patikas\u0131n\u0131n o tarihte duraklama ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %3,00 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesine ra\u011fmen, %65\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %36\u2019ya geriledi. S\u00f6z konusu olas\u0131l\u0131klar o tarihten bu yana toparlanarak 28 Ekim\u2019de %3,00\u2019a y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
OCR, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n nakit faizinin 1,85 puan alt\u0131nda ve Fed\u2019in bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n da 1 puan alt\u0131nda; RBNZ\u2019nin n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131 ise %3\u2013%3,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 21:45 GMT\u2019de, Temmuz\u2019daki %4,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan A\u011fustos yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131n\u0131; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 21:00 GMT\u2019de ise son okumas\u0131 98 olan ANZ\u2013Roy Morgan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksini izleyecek. ABD\u2019de \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc harcama ve enflasyon verileri ile Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam verisinin, RBA\u2019n\u0131n 3 Kas\u0131m karar\u0131na giderken g\u00fcndeme y\u00f6n vermesi bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde diren\u00e7 0,5650 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,5700; destek 0,5625 ve 0,5600 civar\u0131nda. 0,5700 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece e\u011filim k\u0131sa (sat\u0131\u015f) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; hedef 0,5600 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,5550. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131ndan bu yana tek hanelerde seyrederken, 0,5700 \u00fczerinde gelecek bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f k\u0131sa pozisyon senaryosunu sonland\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NZD\/USD paritesinde k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi korumas\u0131n\u0131, 0,5600 seviyesini ve potansiyel olarak 0,5550\u2019yi hedeflemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedef olduk\u00e7a inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131; zira 0,5550, 2022\u2019nin sonundaki k\u00fcresel ekonomik yava\u015flama d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 0,5512 seviyesindeki \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k diplerle yak\u0131ndan \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 0,5700 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ederiz; bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, bu k\u0131sa pozisyon kurgusunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n nakit faizi %4,60\u2019a y\u00fckseltme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki son karar\u0131n\u0131n, b\u00f6lgesel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekledi\u011fimiz bir sinyal etkisi bulunuyor. Avustralya ekonomisi belirgin bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flama emareleri verirken, bu ad\u0131m \u201cdevam\u0131 gelmeyen bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u201d gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma eksikli\u011finin, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Kiwi\u2019yi de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
RBNZ\u2019nin bir sonraki karar\u0131 28 Ekim\u2019deyken, %3,00\u2019a do\u011fru temkinli bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon risklerini y\u00fcksek tutsa da, Kiwi\u2019nin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir destek bulmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7ici Kiwi s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira faiz, RBNZ\u2019nin n\u00f6tr band\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca en alt ucunda yer alacak.<\/p>\n\n
Daha geni\u015f makro arka plan da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131; \u00f6zellikle 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 gibi m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen \u00c7in ekonomisindeki so\u011fuma. \u00c7in, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n tar\u0131m ve s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %30\u2019undan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00c7in\u2019deki olas\u0131 ilave yava\u015flama Kiwi emtia \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebi do\u011frudan zay\u0131flat\u0131r. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, NZD \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131kla gerek\u00e7elendirmelidir.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131 verileri etraf\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ederiz. Tarihsel olarak, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda gelen b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrprizler NZD\/USD\u2019de tek bir seansta 100 pipin \u00fczerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketleri tetiklemi\u015ftir. Ani dolar dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in 0,5650 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes emirleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: RBA\u2019n\u0131n %4,60\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u201cson hamle\u201d sinyali verince AUD zay\u0131flad\u0131, NZD\/USD 0,5650 alt\u0131na indi. Trend h\u00e2l\u00e2 sat\u0131\u015f; hedef 0,5600-0,5550. 0,5700 \u00fcst\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f iptal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t