{"id":69123,"date":"2026-09-30T01:51:37","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T01:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/musalem-sees-ai-capex-driving-stubborn-demand-inflation-urges-fed-clarity-without-rate-promises\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T01:51:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T01:51:37","slug":"musalem-sees-ai-capex-driving-stubborn-demand-inflation-urges-fed-clarity-without-rate-promises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/musalem-sees-ai-capex-driving-stubborn-demand-inflation-urges-fed-clarity-without-rate-promises\/","title":{"rendered":"Musalem, yapay zek\u00e2ya y\u00f6nelik sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n kat\u0131 talep enflasyonunu k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Fed\u2019in faiz taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne girmeden netlik sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

St. Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alberto Musalem, merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131n taahh\u00fctte bulunmas\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l ve neden al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Musalem, faiz oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki devredilmi\u015f yetkinin, bu g\u00fcc\u00fcn nas\u0131l kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair hesap verme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011furdu\u011funu savundu. ABD ekonomisini \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlayan Musalem, enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k kal\u0131c\u0131 talep bask\u0131s\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destekleyici (gev\u015fek) kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyen Musalem, enflasyon beklentilerinin de uzun vadede %2 enflasyonla uyumlu kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n\n

Musalem, mevcut talep bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bir yapay zek\u00e2 CAPEX (sermaye harcamas\u0131) patlamas\u0131na ba\u011flarken, verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u201carz rahatlamas\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (supply relief) hen\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Fed\u2019in \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin daha net anlat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n, sabit bir faiz patikas\u0131 ima etmeden politika aktar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (transmisyon) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Musalem, ileti\u015fimden \u00e7ekilmenin enflasyon riskleri yaratabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; piyasalar\u0131n verilere odaklanmak yerine tepki fonksiyonunu tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n riskli oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Musalem, Fed\u2019in SEP\u2019inin (Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti) iyile\u015ftirilebilece\u011fini; faiz \u201cnokta\u201dlar\u0131n\u0131n (dots) anonim bi\u00e7imde ekonomik projeksiyonlarla ili\u015fkilendirilmesini \u00f6nerdi ve Fed\u2019in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunmaks\u0131z\u0131n tahmin vermesi durumunda \u201cAynalar Salonu\u201d (Hall of Mirrors) benzeri bir dinamik olu\u015fabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n\n

Yapay Zek\u00e2 Altyap\u0131 Patlamas\u0131 S\u00fcregelen Talebi ve Yap\u0131\u015fkan Enflasyonu Besliyor<\/h3>\n\n

Devasa yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131 hamlesinin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi, dikkat \u00e7ekici derecede dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak bu kal\u0131c\u0131 talep, enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Son veriler, k\u00fcresel teknoloji sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 200 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde veri merkezleri ile donan\u0131ma y\u00f6neldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan kaynaklanacak verimlilik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 hen\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, talep kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon piyasa \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

Son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bu yo\u011fun ekonomik ivme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda para politikas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destekleyici kalmaya devam ediyor. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi son d\u00f6nemde %4,2 civar\u0131nda dalgalanarak talep bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcre devam edece\u011fine ili\u015fkin piyasa belirsizli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n belirli bir faiz patikas\u0131na dair s\u00f6z vermeyece\u011fini kabul etmeliyiz; bu da y\u00f6nlendirmeden (forward guidance) ziyade yakla\u015fan ekonomik verilere b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle odaklanmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n

Para Politikas\u0131 Belirsizli\u011fi Ortam\u0131nda Piyasa Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani \u015fahinle\u015fme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak korunmaya y\u00f6nelmesi gerekir. Mevcut enflasyonun neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 talepten kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, gelecekteki faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamalar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlara son derece a\u00e7\u0131k kal\u0131yor. Faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerine kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ekonomik verilerin yeni bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 halinde portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca, hisse senedi t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, yapay zek\u00e2 CAPEX patlamas\u0131n\u0131n inat\u00e7\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji endekslerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (protective put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankalar\u0131 kat\u0131 faiz taahh\u00fctleri yerine a\u00e7\u0131k ve veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7eveleri \u00f6nceledi\u011finde, enflasyon verileri etraf\u0131nda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselir. Bu i\u015flemleri \u015fimdi dengelemek, \u00f6zel piyasadaki beklentilerde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz de\u011fi\u015fimlerden faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok uyar\u0131: Musalem\u2019e g\u00f6re Fed s\u00f6z vermez, hesap verir. Yapay zek\u00e2 CAPEX patlamas\u0131 talebi diri tutup enflasyonu yap\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; politika h\u00e2l\u00e2 gev\u015fek. \u0130leti\u015fim zay\u0131flarsa risk artar, SEP\/dots \u015feffafla\u015fmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69122,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t