{"id":69121,"date":"2026-09-30T00:52:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T00:52:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/feds-barr-calls-for-policy-recalibration-as-markets-price-october-and-december-rate-rises\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T00:52:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T00:52:14","slug":"feds-barr-calls-for-policy-recalibration-as-markets-price-october-and-december-rate-rises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/feds-barr-calls-for-policy-recalibration-as-markets-price-october-and-december-rate-rises\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in Barr\u2019\u0131, piyasalar Ekim ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken politika ayarlamas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fed Guvern\u00f6r\u00fc Michael Barr, politikan\u0131n \u201cyeniden kalibrasyona\u201d ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu ve temel senaryosunun h\u00e2l\u00e2 ilave ayarlamalara i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD\u2019de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ilk yar\u0131daki y\u0131ll\u0131k %2 temposuna k\u0131yasla y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda iyile\u015fmesini bekledi\u011fini belirten Barr, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da i\u015fletme yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131yla desteklenen sa\u011flam bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Barr ayr\u0131ca enflasyonun temel endi\u015fe olmaya devam etti\u011fini ve Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinden \u201crotas\u0131n\u0131n sapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi; bu seviyeye zaman\u0131nda d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle uyumlu net bir e\u011filim g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n\n

Barr, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler azal\u0131rken enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fma risklerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %66 olarak fiyatlarken, bu oran Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in %94\u2019e y\u00fckseliyor. Yapay zek\u00e2 konusunda ise orta vadede verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini not etmek gerekti\u011fini, ancak zamanlaman\u0131n ve aktar\u0131m kanallar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin zor oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; YZ\u2019nin n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itip itmeyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in ise hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011funu ekledi. Ayr\u0131ca, YZ yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l kadar ABD faaliyetini destekleyebilece\u011fini, ancak daha geni\u015f verimlilik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcrede ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, k\u0131sa vadede i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda olas\u0131 bozulmalara da dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n\n

Yenilenen Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Risklerine Kar\u015f\u0131 Portf\u00f6yleri Haz\u0131rlamak<\/h3>\n\n

Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131yla, para politikas\u0131nda ani bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %66 olas\u0131l\u0131k, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in ise \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %94 ihtimal bi\u00e7mesiyle, istikrarl\u0131 faizler d\u00f6nemi h\u0131zla sona yakla\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yakla\u015fan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in portf\u00f6ylerini derhal yeniden ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. <\/p>\n\n

Bu oynakl\u0131kta yol almak i\u00e7in, yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131na keskin tepki verecek Korumal\u0131 Gecelik Finansman Oran\u0131 (SOFR) kontratlar\u0131 gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel olarak Fed \u015fahin bir yeniden kalibrasyona y\u00f6neldi\u011finde k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler h\u0131zla s\u0131\u00e7rar; bu da yak\u0131n vadeli bor\u00e7 t\u00fcrevlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 son derece kazan\u00e7l\u0131 h\u00e2le getirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde genellikle zorlanan hisse endekslerinde ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in opsiyon piyasas\u0131na da bakmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n

Ek olarak, \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019in tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 itti\u011fi d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 izlemeniz gerekir. Son ekonomik veriler, ABD GSYH\u2019sinin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda sa\u011flam bir %2 temposunda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda beklenen h\u0131zlanma da Fed\u2019i daha da cesaretlendirebilir. Bu momentumu, para swaplar\u0131 ve opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Euro veya Japon Yeni gibi daha zay\u0131f para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar uzun pozisyonu alarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n

Yapay Zek\u00e2n\u0131n Etkileri \u0130\u00e7in Stratejik Konumlanma<\/h3>\n\n

Son olarak, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n verimlilik ve n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131 \u00fczerindeki uzun vadeli etkilerine g\u00f6re pozisyon almam\u0131z gerekiyor. YZ\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l GSYH\u2019ye destek vermesi beklenirken, k\u0131sa vadede i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda bozulmalar\u0131 tetiklemesi ve uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerindeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 da olas\u0131. Teknoloji altyap\u0131s\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerini hedeflemek i\u00e7in hisse t\u00fcrevlerini kullanmay\u0131, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi son derece g\u00fc\u00e7 n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131 riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in ise swap opsiyonlar\u0131ndan (swaptions) yararlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed Guvern\u00f6r\u00fc Barr, enflasyon sapmas\u0131 s\u00fcrerken ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali verdi: b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmelenebilir, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc sa\u011flam. Piyasalar Ekim\u2019de %66, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %94 art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor; AI belirsiz ama destek olabilir. Portf\u00f6y hedge \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t