{"id":69109,"date":"2026-09-29T21:52:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T21:52:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/standard-chartered-sees-rbi-set-for-october-december-rate-rises-as-inflation-nears-6-ceiling\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T21:52:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T21:52:28","slug":"standard-chartered-sees-rbi-set-for-october-december-rate-rises-as-inflation-nears-6-ceiling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/standard-chartered-sees-rbi-set-for-october-december-rate-rises-as-inflation-nears-6-ceiling\/","title":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered, enflasyonun %6 \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla RBI\u2019nin Ekim ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Standard Chartered Global Research, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (MPC) 7 Ekim\u2019deki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizi olan repo oran\u0131n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %5,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmesini bekliyor; Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in de ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Notta ayr\u0131ca, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar toplam 50 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7eren temel senaryonun \u00f6tesinde alternatif bir patikaya da yer verilerek, enflasyonun beklentilerden daha kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretmesi halinde 25\u201350 baz puan ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor.<\/p>\n\n

Fiyatlar cephesinde kurum, Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE enflasyonunu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,7 olarak tahmin ediyor; Aral\u0131k MPC toplant\u0131s\u0131 itibar\u0131yla enflasyonun %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Notta, orta vadeli %4 hedef etraf\u0131nda %2\u20136 band\u0131ndan olu\u015fan enflasyon \u00e7er\u00e7evesi yinelenirken, politika ileti\u015fiminde normalle\u015fmeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle uyumlu mesajlara i\u015faret ediliyor; buna FY26\u2019da %2,5 olan ortalama enflasyonun FY27\u2019de %5\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesi beklentisi de dahil.<\/p>\n\n

Beklenen \u015eahin D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe Y\u00f6nelik \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, 7 Ekim politika a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Hindistan Devlet Tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak \u015fahin bir pivotu hemen fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Repo faizinin gelecek ay 25 baz puan artarak %5,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta bir 25 baz puan daha artmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi, 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gecelik Endeks Swaplar\u0131 (OIS) piyasas\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6deyerek de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Faizlerin Y\u00fckseldi\u011fi Ortamda Korunma ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n\n

Bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc, Hindistan\u2019da GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bu y\u0131l rahatl\u0131kla %6,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle desteklenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro temellere dayan\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan, yurt i\u00e7i t\u00fcketici enflasyonu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmelenerek, fiyatlarda s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 250 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu bask\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, g\u00f6sterge nitelikteki bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Enflasyon Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %6 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015farsa, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n e\u011frinin gerisinde kalmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in politika faizinin 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bu t\u00fcr agresif \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma getiri e\u011frisinin h\u0131zla yatayla\u015fmas\u0131na (flattening) yol a\u00e7ar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, uzun vadeli tahvillerde uzun pozisyon al\u0131p k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyona ge\u00e7erek e\u011fri yatayla\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Standard Chartered\u2019dan RBI i\u00e7in \u015fahin senaryo: 7 Ekim\u2019de repo +25 bp ile %5,50, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta +25 bp daha; enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131ysa +25\u201350 bp ek. Strateji: tahvil vadelide short, 1Y OIS sabit \u00f6de, put opsiyonu, e\u011fri flattening.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69108,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t