{"id":69087,"date":"2026-09-29T13:52:32","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T13:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dollar-firms-as-rising-yields-oil-backwardation-and-fed-ecb-divergence-sharpen-rate-expectations\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T13:52:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T13:52:32","slug":"dollar-firms-as-rising-yields-oil-backwardation-and-fed-ecb-divergence-sharpen-rate-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dollar-firms-as-rising-yields-oil-backwardation-and-fed-ecb-divergence-sharpen-rate-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar, y\u00fckselen getiriler, petrol piyasalardaki backwardation ve Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n faiz beklentilerini netle\u015ftirmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar\u0131, Hazine tahvili getirilerinin yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinin s\u00fcrmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, ABD\u2019li \u015firketler tahvil piyasas\u0131ndan fonlama i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetle rekabet etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Petrol\u00fcn y\u00fcksek seyri, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona ikinci tur etkiler aktararak faiz beklentilerini daha agresif bir Fed duru\u015funa do\u011fru itiyor; bu da FOMC\u2019nin \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirmesine yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Ham petrolde vadeli e\u011fri, yak\u0131n vadeli riskin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti: Kas\u0131m vadeli Brent 107 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken Ekim vadesi 100 dolar seviyesinde kald\u0131; b\u00f6ylece spread 1\u20132 dolardan 7 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki 19 milyon varile k\u0131yasla g\u00fcnde 13 milyon varil d\u00fczeyinde oldu\u011funa dair haberlerle ve Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n 7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn kapasitesinin yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda toparlanma beklendi\u011fi bilgisiyle birlikte geldi. Bununla birlikte, ABD ablukas\u0131 \u0130ran ihracat\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek backwardation\u2019\u0131 derinle\u015ftirdi. Piyasalar, 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2027 i\u00e7in beklenen a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama faizi 21 baz puan art\u0131rarak %4,88\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu, daha \u00f6nce 12 ayda 3\u20134 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 4\u20135 ilave art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor ve Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %73 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ECB\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %39\u2019dan %31\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n\n

Getiri ve FX Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerine put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ABD getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe agresif \u015fekilde pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Ekim\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %73 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri y\u00fckseli\u015fe haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, tahvil piyasas\u0131 volatilite endeksindeki son art\u0131\u015fla da destekleniyor; zira bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %4,88 politika faizi \u00e7evresindeki artan endi\u015feyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal stratejileri kullanarak EUR\/USD paritesinde k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u015eahin bir Fed ile, euro b\u00f6lgesinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin yak\u0131n zamanda %31\u2019e kadar geriledi\u011fi daha temkinli bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) EUR\/USD put\u2019lar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak, faiz fark\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 lehine belirgin \u015fekilde hareket ederken i\u015flemciler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yakalayabilir.<\/p>\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu Riskleri Ortam\u0131nda Enerji Piyasas\u0131 Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda, Kas\u0131m vadeli Brent\u2019in 107 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda 7 dolarl\u0131k a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 backwardation, roll maliyetleri nedeniyle do\u011frudan uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bunun yerine, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 arz t\u0131rmanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bull call spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 yaln\u0131zca 13 milyon varille s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, pe\u015fin prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar, y\u00fckselen ABD getirileri ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; petrol 107$ ve 7$ backwardation Fed\u2019i daha \u015fahinle\u015ftiriyor. Strateji: 10Y put, EUR\/USD downside risk reversal, Brent bull call spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t