USD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 157,40 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. ABD\u2019de ilave parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 destek, olas\u0131 Japon m\u00fcdahalesine dair temkinle dengelendi. Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, de\u011fersiz bir yenin genel olarak sorunlu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ile ikili i\u015f birli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme konusunda mutab\u0131k kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey d\u00f6viz diplomat\u0131 Atsushi Mimura da, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ili\u015fkin Tokyo ve Washington\u2019dan gelen \u201cson derece net\u201d mesaj\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n ciddiye almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Bu arada yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 27 A\u011fustos\u201328 Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemindeki olas\u0131 i\u015flemleri kapsayan ve 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki kur kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn fiili yen al\u0131m\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7erebilecek \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerini bekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yen, 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de politika faizini %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckselten Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden de destek buldu; bundan sonraki olas\u0131 art\u0131\u015flara ili\u015fkin sinyaller i\u00e7in g\u00fcndem Tankan anketi ve Tokyo T\u00dcFE\u2019ye \u00e7evrildi. MUFG, bu ayki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek art\u0131\u015f temposunun h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, bir sonraki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta bekliyor ve gelecek ay art arda bir hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %36 olarak hesapl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor: CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ekim\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta USD\/JPY 157,38\u2019de; 200-periyot SMA 157,43\u2019\u00fcn ve 100-periyot SMA 157,89\u2019un alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, RSI (14) 48,46 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7ler 158,00 ard\u0131ndan 159,00; destekler ise 156,50 ve 155,50 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY paritesi kritik 157,40 seviyesinde seyrederken t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n son derece defansif bir duru\u015f benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Japon ve ABD otoritelerinin do\u011frudan ve koordineli m\u00fcdahale tehdidinin artmas\u0131, ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketlerin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Tarihsel olarak koordineli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri, paritede dakikalar i\u00e7inde 200 ila 500 piplik gerilemelere yol a\u00e7abildi\u011finden, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri ve opsiyon korunmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik olarak, 157,43\u2013157,89 band\u0131nda yer alan 200-periyot ve 100-periyot hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n yak\u0131n direnci s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite bu seviyelerin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, 156,50 ve 155,50 destek b\u00f6lgelerini hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, politika kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 sert geri \u00e7ekilmelerden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n\n
BoJ\u2019un 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de politika faizini %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesiyle agresif say\u0131labilecek y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini de dikkate almak gerekiyor. Faiz piyasas\u0131, gelecek ay arka arkaya bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %36 ile fiyatl\u0131yor ve Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da yen i\u00e7in temel bir taban\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6te yandan, Fed\u2019in Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %70 olas\u0131l\u0131k verilmesi kar\u015f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k olu\u015fturuyor ve k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 muhtemelen y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00f6zellikle Tokyo\u2019dan gelen uyar\u0131lar giderek sertle\u015firken 158,00 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 kovalamak yerine bant i\u015flemlerini (range trading) tercih etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Hazine\/Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale verileri beklenirken uzun straddle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejiler y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli sunabilir. Bu politika \u00e7eki\u015fmesinde en g\u00fcvenli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutmak ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite odakl\u0131 i\u015flemlere vermek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\/yen 157,40\u2019ta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi desteklerken Japonya\u2019n\u0131n koordineli m\u00fcdahale mesajlar\u0131 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler MoF verileri, BoJ\u2019un faiz patikas\u0131 ve 158 direnci\/156,50 deste\u011finde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69080,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t