Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %0,16 gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 51.750 seviyesine inerken, S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,03 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 7.740 civar\u0131na geriledi ve Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,12 artarak 30.600\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyir, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc spot seanstaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri izledi; Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi %0,67, S&P 500 %0,77 ve Nasdaq Bile\u015fik Endeksi %0,92 geriledi. ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda petrol y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, odak enflasyon riskleri ve Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n
Hazine tahvil getirileri yeni \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere t\u0131rmand\u0131; hem 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k hem de 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k vadelerde getiriler %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. Fed\u2019in bu ay ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, CME FedWatch Tool para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Ekim\u2019de bir hamle daha gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE enflasyon verisi ile Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporuna odaklan\u0131rken, son d\u00f6nemdeki hisse zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cMuhte\u015fem 7\u201ddeki %1,72\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Hazine tahvil getirileri kritik %5 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken ve Ekim ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %70 seviyesinde bulunurken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma sa\u011flayarak artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. S&P 500 veya Nasdaq 100 \u00fczerinde ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, \u00f6nde gelen b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde olas\u0131 ilave geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu strateji, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri oran\u0131n\u0131n %5\u2019i a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa ancak sert bir d\u00fczeltmeyi tetikledi\u011fi ve piyasan\u0131n sonras\u0131nda dengelendi\u011fi Ekim 2023\u2019teki tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcyle paralellik g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca bu haftan\u0131n kritik PCE enflasyonu ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131. Straddle veya strangle gibi yap\u0131lar kullanmak, ekonomik verilerin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmeye gerek kalmadan sert piyasa hareketlerinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak, getiri oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde \u00f6nemli veri s\u00fcrprizleri VIX\u2019te ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7ar; bu da uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
S\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinden kaynaklanan jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu kat\u0131 (sticky) tutmas\u0131 ve Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fc para politikas\u0131nda agresif kalmaya zorlamas\u0131 muhtemel. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda, sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmek, daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tampon sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70 seviyesinde de\u011fi\u015fkenlik g\u00f6stermesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri kullan\u0131labilir. Yakla\u015fan ekonomik verilerdeki herhangi bir s\u00fcrpriz, bu faiz beklentilerinin h\u0131zla dalgalanmas\u0131na neden olarak h\u0131zl\u0131 tempolu i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. Piyasan\u0131n y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131na uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek esneklikle hareket etmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: Dow ve S&P vadeliler geri \u00e7ekilirken Nasdaq diren\u00e7li. Tahvil getirileri %5 \u00fcst\u00fcnde, Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70. PCE\/NFP \u00f6ncesi put, straddle, enerji call\u2019lar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69074,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t