{"id":69064,"date":"2026-09-29T07:52:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T07:52:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rupee-hits-two-month-low-as-firmer-crude-and-fed-hike-bets-lift-usd-inr-near-96-13\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T07:52:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T07:52:39","slug":"rupee-hits-two-month-low-as-firmer-crude-and-fed-hike-bets-lift-usd-inr-near-96-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rupee-hits-two-month-low-as-firmer-crude-and-fed-hike-bets-lift-usd-inr-near-96-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Rupi, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrol ve Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin USD\/INR\u2019yi 96,13\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi, enerji arz\u0131ndaki kesintinin uzayabilece\u011fine dair endi\u015felerin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi; USD\/INR 96,13\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la yak\u0131n vadede diplomasi beklentilerini geri itmesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; 19 Ekim vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,55 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 9.050 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ham petrol y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, petrol ithal eden ekonomilerin para birimleri genellikle zay\u0131flar.<\/p>\n\n

Petrol, Axios\u2019un Washington\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyi ve dondurulmu\u015f fonlar\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakmay\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini bildiren haberinin ard\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nce gerilemi\u015fti; ancak Trump herhangi bir rahatlama teklif etti\u011fini reddetti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f bir bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecini kapsayan \u00f6nerilerin Katarl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Reuters, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) 1 dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 96 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareketi \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in deste\u011fini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini; FCNR mevduatlar\u0131 yoluyla d\u00f6viz rezerv birikiminden gelen artan \u201cate\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne\u201d at\u0131fla bildirdi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca, CME FedWatch\u2019un Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 g\u00f6stermesiyle, Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini fiyatlad\u0131; g\u00f6zler 14:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos JOLTS verisine \u00e7evrildi. Veri, Temmuz\u2019daki 7,271 milyon seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan 7,23 milyon olarak bekleniyor. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR, 95,68\u2019deki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde 96,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, RSI 62,5 seviyesinde ve 97,00 yak\u0131n\u0131nda diren\u00e7 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n

USD\/INR ve Ham Petrol i\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

USD\/INR 96,00 seviyesini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve 97,00\u2019yi hedefliyor oldu\u011fundan, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri ile tercih etmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 95,68 seviyesindeki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (EMA) rahat bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olduk\u00e7a destekleyici. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 62,5 seviyesinde oldu\u011fundan, piyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden \u00f6nce yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 kayda de\u011fer alan bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n

Emtia taraf\u0131nda da \u00f6zellikle 9.050 rupi \u00fczerini test ederek y\u00fckselen MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, yurt i\u00e7i enerji fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel arz \u015foklar\u0131na son derece duyarl\u0131. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, jeopolitik gerilim kaynakl\u0131 bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve Volatilite G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\n

Bununla birlikte, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) psikolojik kur e\u015fiklerini savunmak i\u00e7in tarihsel olarak devreye giren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahale riskini y\u00f6netmek gerekiyor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri 680 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederek olduk\u00e7a sa\u011flam bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunuyor; bu da merkez bankas\u0131na rupi kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir manevra alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ani dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in, 95,68 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Son olarak, yak\u0131n vadede Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 iken, yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu belirsizlikten, USD\/INR \u00fczerinde uzun straddle gibi y\u00f6n-n\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejileri uygulayarak yararlanabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda makro veriler geldik\u00e7e her iki y\u00f6nde ya\u015fanabilecek sert fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 elde etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrolde jeopolitik tansiyon rupiyi vurdu: USD\/INR iki ay\u0131n dibinde 96,13\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131 ve JOLTS oda\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, RBI 96 \u00fczerini savunabilir; 97 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69063,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t