USD\/JPY pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 157,25 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmeden i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile Japonya\u2019dan gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riskini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda son d\u00f6nemdeki zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrini korudu. Yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n en \u00fcst d\u00fczey kur yetkilisi Atsushi Mimura\u2019n\u0131n para birimindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ili\u015fkin resmi endi\u015feyi yinelemesi ve Japonya ile ABD\u2019den gelen \u201c\u00e7ok net bir mesaj\u201da at\u0131fta bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Mimura, Tokyo\u2019nun yeniden piyasaya girip girmeyece\u011fine dair bir sinyal vermedi. Nisan ve temmuz aylar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki m\u00fcdahale dalgalar\u0131, parite 160\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 temkinli tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik cephede, bir ABD\u2019li yetkili Al Jazeera\u2019ye arac\u0131lar \u00fczerinden \u0130ran\u2019la y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin olumlu seyretti\u011fini ancak n\u00fckleer konunun ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. CNN ise Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n somut n\u00fckleer ilerleme kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gev\u015fetmeye a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu bildirdi. Al Hadath da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n hafifletilmesi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda uranyum zenginle\u015ftirmeyi ask\u0131ya almay\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc; ancak bu bilgi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kaynaklarca do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bu arka planda ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,27\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1996\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %3,1\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131; getiri fark\u0131 dolar lehine deste\u011fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. CME FedWatch, Fed\u2019in 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ekimde bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. \u00c7ar\u015famba PCE, per\u015fembe ISM \u0130malat PMI ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verileri izlenecek.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, USD\/JPY kritik 160 e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131rken son derece temkinli olunmas\u0131n\u0131 ve vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel \u00f6rneklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Japonya, 2024\u2019\u00fcn nisan ve may\u0131s aylar\u0131nda bu seviyeyi savunmak i\u00e7in 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) gibi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tutar harcad\u0131; temmuzda ise bunun ard\u0131ndan yeniden milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k bir m\u00fcdahale geldi. Japon politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ilave ad\u0131mlar i\u00e7in kaynak ay\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, USD\/JPY\u2019de ani ve sert bir ters hareket riski olduk\u00e7a inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %5,27\u2019ye dayanmas\u0131 ve Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle, tarihsel olarak geni\u015fleyen bu farktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ekimde Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131ndan yararlanmal\u0131. Getiri fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, Japon tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f Tokyo\u2019ya do\u011fru yurti\u00e7i sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131nda ani kaymalar ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD-\u0130ran n\u00fckleer s\u00fcrecinde ilerleme s\u00f6ylentilerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir enerji fiyat\u0131 rahatlama rallisi, petrol ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gerilemesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Bu haftan\u0131n y\u00fcksek etkili ABD PCE enflasyonu ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde ani fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle stratejilerinin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Enflasyonun so\u011fumas\u0131 veya jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirileri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde azalabilir ve mevcut USD\/JPY seyrini k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 157,25\u2019te yatay; 160 e\u015fi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcte\u00e7te. Mimura\u2019n\u0131n uyar\u0131lar\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskini diri tutuyor. ABD-\u0130ran n\u00fckleer haberleri ve y\u00fckselen getiriler dolar\u0131 desteklerken, opsiyon hedge ve straddle \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69042,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t