Alt\u0131n, 5 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.200 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerileyerek ocak ay\u0131ndaki rekorunun y\u00fczde 25\u2019ten fazla alt\u0131na indi. A\u011fustos sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, Fed yetkililerinin daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunmas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelirken, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n anl\u0131k etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. \u015eahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n iki ayr\u0131 dalgas\u0131 k\u00fcl\u00e7ede her seferinde y\u00fczde 6-7\u2019lik kayba yol a\u00e7t\u0131; piyasa art\u0131k 2026 dip seviyesi olan 3.950 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4 \u00fczerinde. Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerde kilit g\u00f6sterge olarak 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,9 ile 2024 ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n
23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Barr\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de faaliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en h\u0131zl\u0131 temposuna i\u015faret eden i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketi, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi 14 baz puan yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken alt\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 1\u2019den fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. 21-24 Eyl\u00fcl aras\u0131nda en az be\u015f yetkili ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; 28 Eyl\u00fcl-1 Ekim aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k bir d\u00fczine konu\u015fma beklenirken, bir sonraki karar 28 Ekim\u2019de. Warsh\u2019\u0131n 28 A\u011fustos\u2019taki Jackson Hole mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 takiben 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri y\u00fczde 4,20\u2019den y\u00fczde 4,67\u2019ye y\u00fckselmi\u015f, alt\u0131n da yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 7 gerilemi\u015fti; ard\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 4.400 dolara do\u011fru bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015f durumda ve 4.100 dolar civar\u0131ndaki mart dip seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; bir sonraki seviye 3.950 dolar. Bu seviyenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl 2025 seviyelerine do\u011fru geri ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; Fed\u2019in bir sonraki tahminleri 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. 28 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki son k\u0131r\u0131lma, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u015fartlar\u0131 sertle\u015ftirmesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin birlikte y\u00fckselmesiyle geldi; odak 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki PCE verisine ve 2 Ekim\u2019deki eyl\u00fcl istihdam raporuna \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ve hedefin yaz dip seviyesi olan 3.950 dolar oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Alt\u0131n\u0131n kritik 4.200 dolar deste\u011fini k\u0131rmas\u0131yla, 28 Ekim Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde put opsiyonu almak veya ay\u0131 put spreadi (bear put spread) kurmak en stratejik hamle olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc negatif korelasyon sergiledi\u011finden, mevcut makro ortam uzun pozisyonlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fsiz.<\/p>\n\n
ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; getiri y\u00fczde 4,9\u2019a t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015f durumda ve 2024 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fczde 5,04 zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. 2022\u2019deki agresif parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma gibi getirilerin h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde, getiri art\u0131\u015f\u0131 faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini y\u00fckseltti\u011fi i\u00e7in alt\u0131n zirveden dibe y\u00fczde 20\u2019yi a\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eahin Fed konu\u015fmalar\u0131 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi kritik y\u00fczde 5 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rsa, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinin h\u0131zla bir sonraki destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru kaymas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) endeksi ve 2 Ekim\u2019de yay\u0131mlanacak eyl\u00fcl istihdam raporu etraf\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanabilir. Bu veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi halinde, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 veya do\u011frudan alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, bu duyurular \u00f6ncesinde straddle almak, y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun sert ve ani fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarken, artan enerji maliyetlerini alt\u0131n i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir \u201csat\u0131\u015f\u201d sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerini beslemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, bu durum tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019i faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmaya zorlar ve alt\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131r. Ham petrolde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) ile alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put) e\u015f zamanl\u0131 alarak, s\u00fcregelen enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131ndan yararlanmak \u00fczere olduk\u00e7a etkili iki bacakl\u0131 (dual-leg) bir i\u015flem kurgulanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kritik k\u0131r\u0131lma: Alt\u0131n 4.200 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak ocak zirvesinden %25\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. \u015eahin Fed, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi %4,9\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; hedef 3.950. Put\/bear spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t