Sterlin, ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri s\u0131\u00e7rarken dahi %0,18 y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 10 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde artarken GBP\/USD, 1,3280 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3252\u2019deydi. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f ihtimalinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,15 art\u0131\u015fla 101,18\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma \u00f6nerisini reddetmesi ve ABD ara se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95,41 dolara y\u00fckselerek %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde prim yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirileri %5,261\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bloomberg haberinde, getiri e\u011frisi dinamiklerine i\u015faret edilerek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilde daha y\u00fcksek bir prim talep etti\u011fi ve 10 y\u0131la kar\u015f\u0131 fark\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun da tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (inversion) riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi; tarihsel olarak tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler 1960\u2019tan bu yana resesyonlara i\u015faret etmi\u015f olsa da bu sinyal COVID pandemisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmu\u015ftu. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini beslerken, piyasalar 28 Ekim\u2019deki Sonbahar B\u00fct\u00e7esi\u2019ne ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 John Healey\u2019nin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k konferans\u0131ndaki konu\u015fmas\u0131na da odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kar\u015f\u0131t merkez bankas\u0131 dinamiklerinin \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla GBP\/USD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %5,26 ile \u2014 2023 sonlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesinden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u2014 t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor. Parite 1,3250 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ani hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7in enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri yeniden g\u00fcndemde. Tarihsel olarak petrol\u00fcn 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu \u00fczerinde belirgin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; bu durum da BoE politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye zorluyor. \u015eahin faiz beklentilerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Sterlin \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015f sergileyece\u011fini agresif bi\u00e7imde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Olas\u0131 bir getiri e\u011frisi tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, 1960\u2019tan bu yana vakalar\u0131n %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131nda resesyonlar\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olup, bu da dolar\u0131n temelindeki \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinin olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n GBP\/USD\u2019de uzun vadeli uzun pozisyonlar konusunda temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor; \u00f6zellikle de DXY 101,18\u2019in \u00fczerine t\u0131rman\u0131rken.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, parite \u015fu anda kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 1,3462 civar\u0131nda yo\u011fun bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olu\u015fmu\u015f durumda. Ancak 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 30\u2019a yak\u0131n \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesinde seyretmesi, 1,3320\u2019ye do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fczeltme niteli\u011finde bir toparlanman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya bu ge\u00e7ici konsolidasyondan yararlanmak ad\u0131na iron condor gibi bant (range) stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, 28 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Sonbahar B\u00fct\u00e7esi\u2019nin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor; bu takvim kalemi tarihsel olarak yerel para birimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir piyasa oynat\u0131c\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. 2022\u2019deki ve sterlini 1,035 ile t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen \u201cmini b\u00fct\u00e7e\u201d gibi yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem mali olaylar, Sterlin\u2019in kamu harcama planlar\u0131na ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n yeni maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla, straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejileriyle bu etkinlik \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon almak anlaml\u0131 getiriler sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil faizi 10 bp+ s\u0131\u00e7rasa da Sterlin diren\u00e7li: GBP\/USD 1,3250\u2019de. \u0130ran gerilimi petrol\u00fc 95$ \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Fed\/BoE ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69029,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t