ABD hisseleri, tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi\u011finde her zaman geri \u00e7ekilmedi ve mevcut d\u00f6ng\u00fc bu kal\u0131b\u0131 yeniden test ediyor. Jeopolitik riskler ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimi\u201d, Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 iterken; bu zemin, \u015firket temelleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratma ve devlet tahvillerinin cazibesini art\u0131rma e\u011filimi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, yapay zek\u00e2ya ba\u011fl\u0131 talep ve teknoloji hisselerine yeniden canlanan i\u015ftah S&P 500\u2019\u00fc destekledi; Nasdaq 100 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yeniden y\u00fckselerek zirvelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Russell 2000 ve Dow Jones ise bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler, getirilerde ani hareketler ya\u015fansa bile hisselerin ayakta kalabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 1994\u2019te Fed politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 ve S&P 500 yine de y\u00fckseldi; 1999\u2019da ise s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u00f6ncesinde getiriler t\u0131rman\u0131rken internet hisselerine y\u00f6nelik co\u015fku endeksi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan dot-com balonunun patlamas\u0131, Mart 2000 zirvesinden 2002 sonundaki dip seviyeye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %49\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bug\u00fcn 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirileri 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler ise 2004\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde; buna kar\u015f\u0131n getiri e\u011frisi tersine d\u00f6nmeye yak\u0131n seyretmesine ra\u011fmen (genellikle resesyonla ili\u015fkilendirilen bir sinyal) S&P 500 diren\u00e7li kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019n\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerinde ilerlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejilere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na dair s\u00fcregelen endi\u015felere ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %4,2 civar\u0131nda seyretmesine ra\u011fmen, yapay zek\u00e2daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc momentum daha geni\u015f piyasay\u0131 korumaya devam ediyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalarken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in S&P 500 \u00fczerinde \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejisi kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentimizi, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 5.600 seviyesine yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutunmas\u0131na i\u015faret eden son veriler ve diren\u00e7li \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 destekliyor. Russell 2000\u2019de faizlere duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler geriden gelirken, teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn nakit rezervleri onu \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yal\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, zay\u0131f k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli endekslere put opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge ederken Nasdaq 100 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in cazip bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarih, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flam oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece y\u00fckselen getirilerin mutlaka borsa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc tetiklemesi gerekmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1994 ve 1995\u2019te Fed faizleri agresif bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131rken S&P 500 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn de benzer bir kuruluma i\u015faret ediyoruz: Yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ekonomik y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc dengeliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Portf\u00f6ylerimizi duyarl\u0131l\u0131kta ani bir de\u011fi\u015fime kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, \u015fu anda sakin bir 14 seviyesinde gezinen oynakl\u0131k endeksindeki (VIX) prim fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 izlemeliyiz. Yapay zek\u00e2 talebinde so\u011fuma i\u015faretleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselen \u00e7ip \u00fcreticisi hisselerinde ucuz \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Aksi halde, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmelerde ana endekslerde k\u0131sa vadeli put yazmak, tercih etti\u011fimiz taktik hamle olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil getirileri zirvede, Fed s\u0131k\u0131: Peki borsa niye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor? Yapay zek\u00e2 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 S&P 500 ve Nasdaq\u2019\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, Dow ve Russell bask\u0131da. Strateji: bull call spread, Nasdaq call; hedge: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcklerde put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69023,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t