USD\/CAD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 patikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki toparlanma emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Parite 1,4165 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye 13 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Ham petrol, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki aksamay\u0131 takiben yeniden y\u00fckseldi: Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik son teklifini reddetti; Axios ise Trump\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakerecilerin bu hafta ek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131 bu ay %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde gerilerken, ABD-Kanada faiz fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,90 civar\u0131nda seyrederken Kanada\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,37; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi kabaca %5,21 iken Kanada\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,96 d\u00fczeyinde. Fed, 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti ve enflasyonu %2 hedefine d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; CME FedWatch, piyasalar\u0131n Ekim ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. BoC politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu. Dikkatler \u015fimdi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada Temmuz GSYH verisine ve ABD\u2019de \u00c7ar\u015famba PCE enflasyonu, Per\u015fembe ISM PMI ve Cuma NFP dahil yo\u011fun veri takvimine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n
Fed ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak veya uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi %4,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken Kanada\u2019da %3,37 seviyesinde; 153 baz puanl\u0131k bu b\u00fcy\u00fck fark ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tablo \u00e7iziyor. Tarihsel piyasa verileri, s\u00f6z konusu faiz fark\u0131 150 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/CAD paritesinin genellikle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu haftaki yo\u011fun ekonomik takvime haz\u0131rlanmak ad\u0131na, beklenen volatiliteden yararlanmak i\u00e7in straddle opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Sal\u0131 Kanada GSYH, \u00c7ar\u015famba ABD PCE enflasyonu ve Cuma Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi (NFP) ile sert fiyat hareketleri olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD verilerinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde paritenin 1,4200\u2019deki yak\u0131n direncin h\u0131zla \u00fczerine y\u00f6neldi\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik tansiyon nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korumam\u0131z gerekiyor. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geleneksel olarak Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma (hedge) olarak k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden faydalan\u0131rken emtia kaynakl\u0131 ani ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ve Kanada getirileri aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f fark dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, carry trade\u2019in uzun vadeli faydalar\u0131na da odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. USD\/CAD uzun pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131mak, g\u00fcnl\u00fck pozitif swap getirisi elde etmemize imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yarak portf\u00f6ye ek bir getiri katman\u0131 ekler. Piyasa Ekim ay\u0131nda yeni bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece, bu carry avantaj\u0131 k\u00fcresel sermayeyi dolar lehine \u00e7ekmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Faiz fark\u0131 derinle\u015fiyor, USD\/CAD 13 Temmuz\u2019dan beri zirvede: Fed \u015fahin, BoC pas. Petrol toparlansa da CAD zay\u0131f. Kritik veri haftas\u0131nda 1,4200 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131? Opsiyonla volatilite\/carry \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69015,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t