{"id":68996,"date":"2026-09-28T10:52:06","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T10:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rabobank-flags-20-30-odds-of-consecutive-boj-hike-raising-yen-carry-trade-risks\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T10:52:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T10:52:06","slug":"rabobank-flags-20-30-odds-of-consecutive-boj-hike-raising-yen-carry-trade-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-flags-20-30-odds-of-consecutive-boj-hike-raising-yen-carry-trade-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank, BOJ\u2019un art arda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u201330 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; yen carry trade riskleri art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rabobank\u2019un RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets ekibi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) art arda ikinci bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidebilece\u011fini, BOJ\u2019nin eski icra direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Momma\u2019n\u0131n da ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini belirtiyor. Bankan\u0131n baz senaryosu politika faizinin ekim ay\u0131 sonuna kadar de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olsa da Momma, ilave 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %20\u2013%30 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir karar, 1989\u201390\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez \u00fcst \u00fcste faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve Mart 1980\u2019den bu yana ilk kez ayl\u0131k bazda art arda art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na gelecek.<\/p>\n\n

Rapora g\u00f6re ilk 25 bp\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f Japon yeni\u2019ni (JPY) y\u00f6ns\u00fcz b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve takip eden bir hamlenin yen carry trade \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 sorusunu g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Metin, riski piyasa dinamiklerinde olas\u0131 bir kayma olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelerken, Mart 1980\u2019de faizlerin %9,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem gibi \u00f6nceki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma epizotlar\u0131n\u0131 referans g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Arka Arkaya Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Ekim sonundaki kritik politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tarihe ge\u00e7ecek \u015fekilde art arda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma ihtimali %20 ile %30 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda giderek g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, 1989\u2019daki So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n son d\u00f6nemlerinden bu yana ilk kez \u00fcst \u00fcste faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n\n

Trader\u2019lar ve Volatilite Stratejileri \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn trader\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n, Japon yeni carry trade\u2019inde olas\u0131 ani bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 hemen haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. BOJ\u2019nin 2024 ortas\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi, Nikkei 225\u2019te tek g\u00fcnde %12\u2019lik sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetiklemi\u015fti. Opsiyon trader\u2019lar\u0131, yenin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n

USD\/JPY d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek prim fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, uzun straddle gibi volatilite stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ani y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda d\u00fczenli olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketleri ate\u015fledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Z\u0131mni volatilite zirve yapmadan \u00f6nce pozisyon almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en iyi risk-getiri oran\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BOJ\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz alarm\u0131: Rabobank, ekimde ikinci 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2013%30 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu ad\u0131m yen carry trade\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir; opsiyonlarda volatilite primleri y\u00fckselirken straddle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":68995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t