{"id":68985,"date":"2026-09-28T07:51:27","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:51:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rupee-slips-as-oil-rallies-on-us-iran-tensions-rbi-intervenes-and-us-yields-stay-high\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:51:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:51:27","slug":"rupee-slips-as-oil-rallies-on-us-iran-tensions-rbi-intervenes-and-us-yields-stay-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rupee-slips-as-oil-rallies-on-us-iran-tensions-rbi-intervenes-and-us-yields-stay-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Rupi, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckselmesi, RBI m\u00fcdahalesi ve ABD tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fcksek seyriyle geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131yla haftaya ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f ba\u015flad\u0131. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda USD\/INR %0,15 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,95 seviyesine y\u00fckselirken, 19 Ekim\u2019de vadesi dolacak MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,7 artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 9.000 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), spot piyasada ve Teslimats\u0131z Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler (NDF) \u00fczerinden m\u00fcdahalelerle para birimini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Petrol, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la diplomasi umutlar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 ve ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde ilave askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan al\u0131m g\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u0130ran ise \u201cger\u00e7ek diplomasiye\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu, ancak yeniden sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011framas\u0131 halinde \u201ck\u0131yametvari bir sava\u015f\u201da haz\u0131r bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD tahvil getirileri de ilave bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olmaya devam etti; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisi, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %5,23\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ekim ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Hindistan\u2019da y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana T\u00dcFE enflasyonu ortalama %3,8 olurken, bu oran RBI\u2019nin 2026-2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini olan %5,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. USD\/INR, 20 d\u00f6nemlik \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) olan 95,61\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutunurken, RSI 56,7 seviyesinde ve 96,10 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla MCX Ham Petrol\u2019\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 9.000 rupiye f\u0131rlamas\u0131 \u00fczerine, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara yak\u0131n vadeli petrol kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr ani jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalar k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni volatiliteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya e\u011filimli oldu\u011fundan, riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadleri (bull call spread) cazip bir strateji sunuyor. Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki askeri s\u00f6ylem sertle\u015ftik\u00e7e petrol\u00fcn y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 beklenmeli.<\/p>\n

Rupi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Sabit Getirili Piyasaya Y\u00f6nelik \u00d6neriler<\/h3>\n

Rupi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 belirginle\u015ferek USD\/INR\u2019\u0131 95,95\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken, RBI\u2019nin spot ve forward piyasalardaki aktif m\u00fcdahalesinin sert y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 muhtemel. \u0130\u015flem yapanlara, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama olan 95,61\u2019e do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almalar\u0131n\u0131, 96,10\u2019daki ilk diren\u00e7 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr taban\u0131n\u0131 dikkate al\u0131rken ani rupi de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirileri \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 zirve olan %5,23\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken, k\u00fcresel sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 dolar lehine kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek geli\u015fen piyasa varl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Piyasa ekimde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, y\u00fckselen getirilerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca yurti\u00e7i yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, RBI\u2019nin yakla\u015fan para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Gecelik Endeksli Swap\u2019lar\u0131 (OIS) kullanarak yerel faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u015foku rupiyi vurdu: USD\/INR 95,95\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken MCX ham petrol 9.000 rupiyi a\u015ft\u0131. RBI m\u00fcdahalede. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, %5,23 tahvil faizi ve Fed beklentisi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t