Alt\u0131n, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 ve \u015fahin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.215 dolara geriledi. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda g\u00f6sterge faizde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faiz beklentileri daha da sertle\u015fti; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi, faiz getirmeyen alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde genellikle bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; zira alt\u0131n, faiz ta\u015f\u0131yan varl\u0131klara k\u0131yasla gelir ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sunmaz.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7eken Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yenilenen gerilimleri sindirirken, fiyatlamalar ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Grafiklerde XAU\/USD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korudu; fiyat 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 39,9 seviyesinde bulunuyordu. Diren\u00e7, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.300 dolar civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan Bollinger orta \u00e7izgisine yak\u0131n 4.340 dolar seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; \u00fcst bantta 4.462 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Destek ise alt bantta 4.218 dolar civar\u0131nda yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn 4.218 dolardaki kritik destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015f benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ile Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretmesi, faiz getirmeyen metal i\u00e7in son derece zorlu bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in olduk\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde, getirili varl\u0131klar\u0131n cazibesi artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek ad\u0131na alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar ya da ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. RSI\u2019\u0131n 39,9 seviyesinde olmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n tamamen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ger\u00e7ek bir dip olu\u015fmadan \u00f6nce fiyat\u0131n daha da geri \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli bir alan bulundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.300 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ilk diren\u00e7 ile Bollinger orta band\u0131 olan 4.340 dolar seviyesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, beklenmedik jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi ani \u201cshort squeeze\u201d hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in bu diren\u00e7 i\u015faretlerinin hemen \u00fczerine zarar durdur (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirmelidir. Fiyat\u0131n 4.218 dolar seviyesini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri alamamas\u0131 durumunda, daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ana oynakl\u0131k unsurlar\u0131 olmaya devam ettikleri i\u00e7in enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD tahvil getirilerini de yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri nedeniyle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, enflasyon beklentilerini ge\u00e7ici olarak yukar\u0131 iterek Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre \u015fahin kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. ABD dolar\u0131nda ya da tahvil getirilerinde belirgin bir gev\u015feme g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar, k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.215 dolara \u00e7ekildi; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve \u015fahin Fed mesajlar\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019i a\u015farken, RSI 39,9: 4.218 kritik destek, 4.300-4.340 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t