{"id":68919,"date":"2026-09-28T04:52:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T04:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/gbp-usd-advances-as-dollar-softens-fed-hike-odds-rise-and-boe-rhetoric-supports-sterling\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T04:52:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T04:52:13","slug":"gbp-usd-advances-as-dollar-softens-fed-hike-odds-rise-and-boe-rhetoric-supports-sterling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/gbp-usd-advances-as-dollar-softens-fed-hike-odds-rise-and-boe-rhetoric-supports-sterling\/","title":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve BoE\u2019nin \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemlerinin sterlini desteklemesiyle y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

GBP\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3230 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ikinci g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi; ABD Dolar\u0131, Fed yetkililerinden gelen \u015fahin mesajlara ra\u011fmen zay\u0131flad\u0131. Odak, istihdam verileri ve Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi dahil bu haftaki ABD verilerine kay\u0131yor. Politika beklentileri de yeniden fiyatland\u0131: Para piyasalar\u0131 art\u0131k Ekim ay\u0131ndaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizi art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65,9 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %57,6 ve bir ay \u00f6nce %9,4 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik cephe de g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ba\u015fkan Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nerisini reddederken, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu hafta yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131nda sona erebilece\u011fini belirtirken, ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde ilave sald\u0131r\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini de masada b\u0131rakt\u0131. Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) s\u00f6yleminden destek buldu: BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey, kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n faizleri sabit tutmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunurken, PPK \u00fcyeleri Sarah Breeden ve Clare Lombardelli enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye daha yak\u0131n bir \u00e7izgiye geldi. Bailey\u2019nin konu\u015fmas\u0131 FXS Speechtracker\u2019da 6,3\/10\u2019luk baz seviyeye k\u0131yasla 8,2\/10 puan ald\u0131; ayr\u0131ca artan mortgage oranlar\u0131na i\u015faret etti ve yapay zekay\u0131 potansiyel bir pozitif \u015fok olarak nitelendirdi. Enerji fiyat\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin \u015fu anda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu, ancak yine de erken a\u015famada bulundu\u011funu da vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politikas\u0131 Etraf\u0131nda Volatilite \u0130\u015flemleri F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Hem Fed\u2019in hem de BoE\u2019nin ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesiyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kur volatilitesinde sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. GBP\/USD\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,3230 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle almak bu \u00e7ift-\u015fahin ortamdan yararlanmak i\u00e7in son derece etkili bir yol. Tarihsel olarak, iki merkez bankas\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda \u015fahinle\u015fti\u011finde GBP\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %10\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve volatilite al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc prim kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 sunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n

Fed\u2019in Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin bir ay \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %9,4 iken %65,9\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam ve enflasyon verilerinin piyasalarda orant\u0131s\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte hareketleri tetikleyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu \u015fahin beklentilerin h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) kontratlar\u0131 gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu haftaki PCE enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi beklentiden s\u0131cak gelirse, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda Ekim art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k kolayl\u0131kla %90\u2019a do\u011fru t\u0131rmanabilir ve dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik Risk ve Stratejik Korunma<\/h3>\n\n

Faizlerin \u00f6tesinde, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler ve Kas\u0131m 2026\u2019daki ara se\u00e7imlerin yakla\u015fmas\u0131 piyasaya belirgin \u201cikili\u201d (binary) riskler y\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Askeri tansiyonun t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde ABD dolar\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli liman kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) GBP put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki jeopolitik \u015foklar CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (VIX) ortalama %15 ila %20 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve bu durum belirgin \u015fekilde dolar\u0131 desteklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda ise Ba\u015fkan Bailey\u2019nin kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u015fahin tonu, sterlindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin yak\u0131n vadede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, prim maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarken istikrarl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla GBP\u2019de bull call spread kurarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Bu strateji a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve BoE\u2019nin piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha erken faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin\/dolar 1,3230\u2019da t\u0131rman\u0131rken dolar zay\u0131f; piyasa Fed\u2019in Ekim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %65,9\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. BoE \u015fahinle\u015fiyor, jeopolitik risk s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: straddle\/strangle, OTM GBP put ve bull call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t