ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Fox News\u2019e g\u00f6re pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ilave sald\u0131r\u0131 ihtimalini d\u0131\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Sava\u015f\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok yak\u0131nda\u201d kazan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini belirten Trump, bu sonucu petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ili\u015fkilendirerek ham petrol\u00fcn \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere \u201cciddi \u015fekilde\u201d gerileyece\u011fini savundu. Trump ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah edinmesine izin verilmeyece\u011fini yineleyerek, n\u00fckleer cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD hedeflerinin merkezine yerle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Basra K\u00f6rfezi Bo\u011faz Otoritesi (PGSA), armat\u00f6rleri Basra K\u00f6rfezi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u201cyetkisiz\u201d g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 kullanmamalar\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131 ve kurallara uymayan denizcilik \u015firketlerinin sonu\u00e7larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Piyasalarda ise West Texas Intermediate (WTI), yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,72 art\u0131\u015fla 92,00 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol 92,00 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve s\u00f6ylem sertle\u015firken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekiyor. D\u00fcnya s\u0131v\u0131 petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede arz kesintileri son derece inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir risk olu\u015fturuyor. Asker\u00ee bir harek\u00e2t ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in WTI \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
2022\u2019deki jeopolitik \u015foklar gibi \u00f6nceki Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinde, k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergeleri h\u0131zla varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 139 dolara kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. ABD\u2019nin ilave sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemesi halinde WTI\u2019\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede 100 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesini test edebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma pozisyon al\u0131rken prim maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden baz seviyelere do\u011fru itebilecek h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmal\u0131. Ani bir tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, her iki y\u00f6nde de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan uzun strangle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k h\u00e2l\u00e2 yeni duruma uyum sa\u011fl\u0131yor; bu da \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bu opsiyonlar\u0131n \u015fimdilik g\u00f6rece uygun maliyetli oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki tehdit uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sigorta primlerini ve tanker navlunlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Deniz navlunu vadeli i\u015flemlerinde t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapmak veya enerji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, bu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k darbo\u011fazlar\u0131ndan yararlanman\u0131n alternatif bir yolu olabilir. Bu uyar\u0131lar\u0131n reel etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck tanker ge\u00e7i\u015f hacimlerini izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trump \u0130ran\u2019a yeni sald\u0131r\u0131 ihtimalini masada tutuyor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de rota uyar\u0131lar\u0131 arz \u015foku riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. WTI 92 dolarda; oynakl\u0131k artarken call, bull spread ve strangle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t