Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi, somut anla\u015fmalar yerine bir takvim ortaya koydu; bu da piyasalar\u0131n ticaret, petrol ve teknoloji ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 son tarihi fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, 23 Eyl\u00fcl \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, daha \u00f6nce 10 Kas\u0131m 2026\u2019da sona ermesi beklenen Busan ticaret ate\u015fkesinin 10 Ocak 2027\u2019ye uzat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; b\u00f6ylece tarifelerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve nadir toprak elementlerinin ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bunun \u00f6tesinde hafta; dar bir \u00fcr\u00fcn seti i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ticaret \u201ckurulu\u201d, yapay zek\u00e2 olay bildirimlerine ili\u015fkin bir ABD \u00f6nerisi ve iki panda getirdi. Ancak \u00e7ipler veya nadir topraklar konusunda kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k bir duyuru yap\u0131lmad\u0131 ve Beyaz Saray, \u00f6zel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere dair ayr\u0131nt\u0131 payla\u015fmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Fiyatlamaya makro dinamikler h\u00e2kim oldu. Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle dolar yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Hazine tahvili getirileri 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye y\u00fckselirken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Brent, ABD\u2013\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki ilerlemeye ili\u015fkin iyimserli\u011fin y\u00fckselip s\u00f6nmesiyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. D\u00f6vizde yuan, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) beklentilerden daha zay\u0131f bir orta nokta belirlemesi sonras\u0131 3,5 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131ktan sonra dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 6,72\u2019ye do\u011fru geriledi. Te\u015fvikleri ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi: \u00c7in\u2019in a\u011fustos fazlas\u0131 119,1 milyar dolar olurken, ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in ile a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 2018\u2019deki 418 milyar dolardan 2025\u2019te 203 milyar dolara indi. Petrol taraf\u0131ndaki riskin oda\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131; \u00c7in\u2019in ham petrol ithalat\u0131, nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,2 milyon varilden yakla\u015f\u0131k 8,2 milyona gerileyerek %38 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bunun yan\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 milyar varillik stratejik rezerv kullan\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00c7ipler ve Tayvan konusunda Pekin, may\u0131stan bu yana dondurulmu\u015f 14 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD silah paketi dahil g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere at\u0131f yapt\u0131; ancak Washington\u2019dan kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00f6zet gelmedi ve ihracat kontrolleri y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Busan ticaret ate\u015fkesi yaln\u0131zca 10 Ocak 2027\u2019ye kadar uzat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa bir istikrar penceresinin ard\u0131ndan sert bir oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Piyasa bu ge\u00e7ici rahatlamay\u0131 \u015fimdiden fiyatlad\u0131; yuan, son rallinin ard\u0131ndan 6,72 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Mevcut sakinli\u011fin pe\u015finden ko\u015fmak yerine bu durgun d\u00f6nemi yakla\u015fan ocak \u201cu\u00e7urumu\u201dna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
Daha geni\u015f makro bask\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz; \u00f6zellikle de ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizinin %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve dolar endeksinin yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda. Tarihsel olarak, getiriler bu 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri ve sermaye yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rler ciddi de\u011ferleme bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015ftirici (steepener) i\u015flemlere ve defansif opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Petrol, en yak\u0131n ve en oynak \u201csaat\u201d olmaya devam ediyor; Brent, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki s\u00fcregelen gerilimler nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. K\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin 2026\u2019da ortalama 103 milyon varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor; d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bo\u011fazdaki herhangi bir aksama piyasaya son derece duyarl\u0131. Ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Brent call spread\u2019leri al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olas\u0131 bir 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 enerji hisselerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck orta nokta (fixing) belirlemesi, d\u00f6viz trader\u2019lar\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir sinyal veriyor. Yuan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 6,80\u2019in \u00f6tesine zay\u0131flarsa, bu Pekin\u2019in ocak ticaret son tarihinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edecektir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n pariteyi h\u0131zla 7,00 e\u015fi\u011fine itti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, uzun USD\/CNY volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131 in\u015fa edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en ileri mikro\u00e7iplerinin %90\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcreten Tayvan \u00e7evresindeki sistemik kuyruk riskini (tail risk) h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. 14 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD silah paketinin dondurulmu\u015f olmas\u0131 ve Tayvan konusunda resmi bir ABD-\u00c7in mutabakat\u0131n\u0131n bulunmamas\u0131, \u00e7ip sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de\u011ferlemeleri y\u00fcksek k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fck yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde zarar-durdurman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n ani tedarik zinciri ablukalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet etkin bir hedge y\u00f6ntemi oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca, \u00c7in\u2019in ABD tar\u0131m ve enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnlerindeki al\u0131m hacmini ve \u0130ran konusunda Umman\u2019daki diplomatik ilerlemeyi yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Bu somut metrikler, defansif hedge\u2019lerimizi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcp \u00e7\u00f6zmeyece\u011fimizi ya da oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 belirleyecek. \u0130\u015flem ufkunu k\u0131sa tutmak ve bu spesifik tarihlere odaklanmak, bu \u00fc\u00e7 \u201csaat\u201d geri sayarken sermayemizi koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi anla\u015fma de\u011fil takvim \u00fcretti: piyasa ticarette 10 Ocak 2027, petrolde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/\u0130ran, teknolojide Tayvan \u201cson tarihlerini\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor; dolar ve %5 \u00fczeri 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t