\u0130ran, CNBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve di\u011fer talepleri i\u00e7eren yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00f6neriye ili\u015fkin ABD\u2019den kesin bir yan\u0131t bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Tahran, \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fatmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek su yolunun yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bu ko\u015fullara ba\u011flarken, \u0130ranl\u0131 bir askeri komutan \u00fclkenin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu ifade etti. Ayr\u0131 olarak Axios\u2019un aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin son \u00f6nerisini reddetmesine ra\u011fmen \u0130ran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu hafta yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalarda \u201crisk-on\u201d ve \u201crisk-off\u201d, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde risk almaya istekli oldu\u011funu tan\u0131mlar: risk-on d\u00f6nemlerinde hisseler ve \u00e7o\u011fu emtia y\u00fckselir, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenir ve kripto varl\u0131klar de\u011fer kazan\u0131r; risk-off d\u00f6nemlerinde ise tahviller\u2014\u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkelerin devlet tahvilleri\u2014genellikle ralli yapar, alt\u0131n y\u00fckselir ve g\u00fcvenli liman para birimleri daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterir. Risk-on\u2019da s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7lenen para birimleri aras\u0131nda Avustralya Dolar\u0131 (AUD), Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD), Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 (NZD) ve d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131nda Rus rublesi (RUB) ile G\u00fcney Afrika rand\u0131 (ZAR) yer al\u0131r. Risk-off d\u00f6nemlerinde ise ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD), Japon Yeni (JPY) ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) genellikle de\u011fer kazan\u0131r; bu durum rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fc, devlet tahvili piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n derinli\u011fi ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi \u00f6zellikleriyle desteklenir.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n son \u00f6nerisini reddetmesiyle birlikte, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa sahip bir \u201crisk-off\u201d evresine giriyoruz. Bu kritik su yolu, g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20,5 milyon varil petrol ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla Brent ve WTI ham petrol \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi uzun oynakl\u0131k (long volatility) opsiyon stratejilerine \u00f6ncelik vermeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte, sermayenin Alt\u0131n ve ABD Dolar\u0131 gibi geleneksel g\u00fcvenli limanlara akmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi; son d\u00f6nemde de k\u00fcresel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Hisse piyasas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in Alt\u0131n (GC) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) alarak ve ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yarak konumlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endeksleri gibi risk-on varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bulunuyor. Benzer tarihsel gerilimlerde CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX), birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %30\u2019dan fazla s\u0131\u00e7rayarak k\u00fcresel hisse piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Ani bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in S&P 500\u2019de koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (protective put) sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve AUD\/USD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi piyasalar\u0131 ate\u015fliyor: \u0130ran \u015fartlar\u0131 sert, ABD belirsiz. 20,5 mb\/g\u00fcn petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskte; risk-off derinle\u015fiyor. Straddle ile petrol volatilitesi, alt\u0131n-call\/DXY long, S&P 500 put ve AUD\/USD short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t