{"id":68874,"date":"2026-09-26T04:51:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T04:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/societe-generale-sees-yuan-volatility-rising-as-xi-us-trip-extends-trade-truce-to-january\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T04:51:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T04:51:17","slug":"societe-generale-sees-yuan-volatility-rising-as-xi-us-trip-extends-trade-truce-to-january","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/societe-generale-sees-yuan-volatility-rising-as-xi-us-trip-extends-trade-truce-to-january\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale: Xi\u2019nin ABD Ziyareti Ticaret Ate\u015fkesini Ocak Ay\u0131na Uzat\u0131rken Yuan Volatilitesinde Art\u0131\u015f Bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Societe Generale, Ba\u015fkan Xi\u2019nin ABD ziyaretinin piyasalara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; zira ticaret ate\u015fkesinin yaln\u0131zca ocak ay\u0131na uzat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeni tarife indirimleri ya da yapay zek\u00e2 diyalo\u011fu i\u00e7in bir mekanizma \u00fcretmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. FX taraf\u0131nda USD\/CNY, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 6,70\u2019in alt\u0131na indikten sonra toparland\u0131; bu hareket daha y\u00fcksek ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ve PBoC\u2019nin renminbi y\u00f6netiminde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gev\u015femeden destek buldu.<\/p>\n

PBoC, \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 gev\u015fek\u201d para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu yeniden teyit etti ve politika ara\u00e7 setinde esnekli\u011fi korurken yuan\u0131 genel olarak istikrarl\u0131 tutma niyetini yineledi. \u00c7in bankalar\u0131 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi ana faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 (LPR) s\u0131ras\u0131yla %3,0 ve %3,50 seviyelerinde sabit tuttu. Likidite arz\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131: Merkez bankas\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo \u00fcst limitini 1 trilyon CNY\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti ve ayr\u0131 bir ad\u0131m olarak MLF operasyonlar\u0131yla net 200 milyar CNY enjekte etti.<\/p>\n

Kur Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrev \u00dcr\u00fcn F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

ABD-\u00c7in ticaret ate\u015fkesinin yaln\u0131zca ocak ay\u0131na kadar uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve tarifelerde ilerleme olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CNY oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, kurun 6,70\u2019in alt\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan toparlanmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirilerinin %3,8 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131n yuan aleyhine sermaye \u00e7ekmeye devam etmesi belirgin \u015fekilde destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz \u0130stikrar\u0131 ve Stratejik Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n LPR\u2019leri %3,0 ve %3,5\u2019te de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesiyle birlikte faiz swaplar\u0131nda i\u015flem yapman\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Orta vadeli bor\u00e7 verme imk\u00e2n\u0131 (MLF) \u00fczerinden net 200 milyar yuan d\u00e2hil b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli likidite enjeksiyonlar\u0131, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Bu istikrarl\u0131 nakit enjeksiyonu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yuan taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7i bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin g\u00f6rece yatay seyredece\u011fi bir senaryoya g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak, uzayan ticaret belirsizli\u011fi, \u00f6nceki m\u00fczakere d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde yuan z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131\u00e7ramalara benzer \u015fekilde ani piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Ocak ay\u0131ndaki kritik tarihe haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in, offshore yuan \u00fczerinde her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerini yakalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck uzun straddle opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n nihai ticaret sonucunu tahmin etmesini gerektirmeden, ani siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamalara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar Xi-ABD bulu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamad\u0131: ate\u015fkes sadece ocak\u2019a uzad\u0131, tarife\/AI ad\u0131m\u0131 yok. USD\/CNY 6,70 alt\u0131ndan d\u00f6nd\u00fc; PBoC likidite verdi, LPR sabit. Oynakl\u0131k artabilir. T\u00fcrevde short-dated call\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t