{"id":68869,"date":"2026-09-26T01:52:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T01:52:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/asian-fx-slips-amid-higher-oil-rising-us-yields-and-holiday-thinned-liquidity-rupiah-lags\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T01:52:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T01:52:14","slug":"asian-fx-slips-amid-higher-oil-rising-us-yields-and-holiday-thinned-liquidity-rupiah-lags","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/asian-fx-slips-amid-higher-oil-rising-us-yields-and-holiday-thinned-liquidity-rupiah-lags\/","title":{"rendered":"Asya d\u00f6vizleri, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, artan ABD tahvil getirileri ve tatil nedeniyle azalan likidite ortam\u0131nda geriledi; rupi daha zay\u0131f seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Asya d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve artan ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131yla genel olarak daha zay\u0131f seyretti. Endonezya rupisi (IDR) negatif ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, Filipin pesosu (PHP), Hindistan rupisi (INR) ve Tayland baht\u0131 (THB) da geriledi. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) fixing\u2019inde son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filiminin duraksamas\u0131yla renminbideki (CNY) ivme de zay\u0131flad\u0131. USD\/SGD yatay kald\u0131 ancak son d\u00f6nemin zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n

Orta Sonbahar ve Chuseok tatilleri nedeniyle \u00c7in, G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayvan\u2019\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131, likiditenin \u201cjilet gibi ince\u201d olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00c7in\u2019de gelecek hafta Per\u015fembe ba\u015flayacak golden week (alt\u0131n hafta) tatilleri i\u015flem derinli\u011fini daha da azaltabilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ederken Asya FX \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir; s\u0131\u011f piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 hafta sonuna do\u011fru daha dalgal\u0131 fiyat hareketlerine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel R\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n Sertle\u015fmesi ve T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

K\u00fcresel kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar \u015fiddetlenirken Asya para birimleri \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolara t\u0131rman\u0131rken, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam durarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle Endonezya Rupisi (IDR) ve Filipin Pesosu\u2019nda (PHP) k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k nedeniyle ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, 1 Ekim\u2019de ba\u015flayacak \u00c7in\u2019in Golden Week tatili dahil olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck Asya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n tatil d\u00f6nemine girmesiyle piyasa likiditesinde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr tatil haftalar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite, normal d\u00f6nemlere k\u0131yasla FX oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019ye kadar art\u0131rabiliyor. Bu ortamda ani ve sert hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/SGD veya USD\/INR \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

CNY Politika De\u011fi\u015fimi ve Volatilite Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

\u00c7in Renminbisi (RMB), PBoC\u2019nin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck referans kur (fixing) uygulamas\u0131na ara vermesinin ard\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunu kaybetti. Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, Pekin\u2019in ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemek amac\u0131yla bir miktar daha zay\u0131f kur seviyelerini tolere edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; nitekim imalat endekslerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilemeyle birlikte son verilerde hafif bir so\u011fuma sinyali g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Karada (onshore) \u00c7in piyasalar\u0131 kapal\u0131yken olas\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez getiri hareketlerinin birle\u015fimi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme kaynakl\u0131 kayman\u0131n (slippage) belirgin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Dalgal\u0131 fiyat hareketlerinde sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n toplam pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini %25\u2013%30 azaltmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Son zirvelerine yak\u0131n yatay seyreden USD\/SGD gibi defansif ve likit paritelere odaklanmak, bu t\u00fcrb\u00fclansl\u0131 d\u00f6nemde daha g\u00fcvenli bir liman sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol 85 dolar, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Asya FX\u2019te sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131! IDR ba\u015fta zay\u0131flarken CNY ivmesi durdu. Tatiller likiditeyi inceltip oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; long vol, opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t