{"id":68868,"date":"2026-09-26T01:51:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T01:51:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/hammack-warns-of-inflationary-mindset-as-fed-signals-higher-for-longer-rates-and-dollar-volatility\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T01:51:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T01:51:22","slug":"hammack-warns-of-inflationary-mindset-as-fed-signals-higher-for-longer-rates-and-dollar-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hammack-warns-of-inflationary-mindset-as-fed-signals-higher-for-longer-rates-and-dollar-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Hammack, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 sinyalini vermesi ve dolardaki oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda enflasyonist zihniyete kar\u015f\u0131 uyard\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack, temel enflasyon riskinin bir \u201cenflasyonist zihniyet\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve kamuoyunun uzun bir s\u00fcredir hedefin \u00fczerinde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Hammack, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n dezenflasyonda h\u00e2l\u00e2 ilerleme kaydetmesi gerekti\u011fini belirterek oda\u011f\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politika faizlerinin korunmas\u0131na y\u00f6neltti; t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 ve sermaye harcamalar\u0131 gibi talep taraf\u0131 dinamiklerini s\u00fcregelen bask\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 olarak i\u015faret etti. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin iyi dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ifade eden Hammack, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmedeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n beklentileri yukar\u0131 kayd\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n

FX piyasalar\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,15 y\u00fckseli\u015fle en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini izlerken, Japon yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,99 geriledi ve euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,10 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sterlin, Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,19 de\u011fer kazand\u0131; \u201cgreenback\u201d Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ise %0,10 y\u00fckseldi. Fed %2 enflasyonu hedefliyor ve 12 yetkiliden olu\u015fan FOMC arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla y\u0131lda sekiz politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca niceliksel gev\u015feme (QE) veya niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT) da kullanabiliyor; QE 2008 krizinde devreye al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve genellikle Dolar\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flatma e\u011filimindeyken, QT tipik olarak destekleyici olur.<\/p>\n

Volatilite Beklentileri ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politikas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Merkez bankalar\u0131 \u015fahin e\u011filimlerini korurken, sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymetler ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda uzayan bir volatilite d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir enflasyonist zihniyete ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in faizleri piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgede tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Piyasa beklentileri ile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu uyumsuzluk, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n getiri e\u011frisinde ani yukar\u0131 kaymalara kar\u015f\u0131 hedge yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Son ekonomik veriler bu temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor: ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 2024\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda %0,5 artt\u0131 ve mevcut d\u00f6ng\u00fc boyunca diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,7 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretmesi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam etmesi (i\u015fsizlik yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,1) agresif faiz indirimleri tezini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda SOFR kontratlar\u0131 gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cy\u00fcksek-daha-uzun\u201d (higher-for-longer) senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon alman\u0131n, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temkinli bir profil sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz ve T\u00fcrev Piyasalar\u0131nda \u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Ayr\u0131ca olas\u0131 kur dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Fed k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 gev\u015femeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u201cgreenback\u201d g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye giri\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fcr. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ABD\u2019nin gerisinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle, euro veya yen gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Cleveland Fed\u2019den \u201cenflasyonist zihniyet\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131 geldi. Hammack, hedef \u00fcst\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131n beklentileri bozabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131, dolar ve volatiliteyi destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t