{"id":68866,"date":"2026-09-25T23:52:30","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T23:52:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/gold-steadies-near-4280-as-elevated-us-yields-and-fed-hike-bets-cap-upside\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T23:52:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T23:52:30","slug":"gold-steadies-near-4280-as-elevated-us-yields-and-fed-hike-bets-cap-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/gold-steadies-near-4280-as-elevated-us-yields-and-fed-hike-bets-cap-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirileri ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla 4.280 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD tahvil getirileri ve enflasyon beklentilerinin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri \u015fekillendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle, iki seansl\u0131k gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.280 dolar seviyesinde dengelendi; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde daha \u00f6nce 4.254 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 baz puan gerileyerek %5,192\u2019ye inerken, \u00e7ekirdek Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri A\u011fustos\u2019ta beklentilerin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131 ve Temmuz verisi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni zay\u0131flad\u0131; Michigan \u00dcniversitesi endeksi 51,7\u2019den 48,1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferken, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4\u2019ten %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi ve 5-10 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,3\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Prime Terminal, Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64 olarak fiyatlarken, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k %93\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Petroldeki geri \u00e7ekilme ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu; WTI %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91,00 dolara inerken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,22 gerileyerek 101,02\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 4.304\u20134.312 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, RSI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Destek, 4.200\u20134.210 dolar band\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 3 A\u011fustos dip seviyesi 4.019 dolar ve 4.000 dolar seviyesi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Diren\u00e7ler 4.300, 4.350 ve 4.400 dolarda bulunuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 talebine de at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131; 2022\u2019de 1.136 tonluk al\u0131m\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131nda K\u0131sa Vadeli Ay\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

4.300 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlanan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %5,192 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede kalmas\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n Ekim\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %64 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131, uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 4.300\u20134.312 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerde k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7may\u0131 veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n

Teknik g\u00f6stergelerimiz, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 50 n\u00f6tr e\u015fi\u011finin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla net bir ay\u0131 e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor. Alt\u0131n, 4.200 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kama (wedge) deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkarsa, 4.019 dolardaki A\u011fustos dip seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f on y\u0131llarda benzer makroekonomik arka planlarda\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 1980\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131nda\u2014reel getiriler belirgin \u015fekilde pozitif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendler sergilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 91,00 dolara gerilemesinden kaynaklanan ge\u00e7ici rahatlama, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 101,02\u2019ye \u00e7ekti; ancak bu rahatlama k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilir. Devam eden jeopolitik gerilimler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair tehdit, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani bir toparlanmay\u0131 kolayca tetikleyebilir; bu da h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6 seviyesinde bulunan enflasyon beklentilerini yeniden alevlendirir. Petrol t\u00fcrevlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; ham petrolde olas\u0131 ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, muhtemelen tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 iterken alt\u0131n\u0131 daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n

Uzun Vadeli \u0130stikrar \u0130\u00e7in Kurumsal Destek<\/h3>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli ay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ra\u011fmen, kurumsal al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc uzun vadeli taban\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi (World Gold Council) verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n son y\u0131llarda rekor 1.037 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131ndan \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme amac\u0131yla tarihsel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir egemen birikim temposunu korudu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Bu devasa al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc, 4.000 dolar psikolojik seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla agresif bir destekle kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da buray\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda k\u00e2r realizasyonu yapmak ve uzun y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (reversal) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 aramak i\u00e7in ideal bir b\u00f6lge h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: XAU\/USD 4.280\u2019de dengelendi, ancak Fed\u2019in Ekim %64 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 ve %5,192 10Y getiri bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 4.300 a\u015f\u0131lamazsa 4.200-4.019 hedef; 4.000\u2019de merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t