USD\/CHF, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir haftal\u0131k performans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gerilemesine ra\u011fmen Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti ve pariteyi 0,8285 civar\u0131nda, en son May\u0131s 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yak\u0131n tuttu. \u00c7apraz parite yine de art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k kazanc\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 bu y\u0131l \u00e7o\u011fu maj\u00f6r para biriminin gerisinde kald\u0131; bunda \u015fahin bir Fed ortam\u0131 etkili olurken, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) %0 politika faizi de frang\u0131n carry-trade i\u015flemlerinde fonlama baca\u011f\u0131 rol\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirerek kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
SNB Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi ve duru\u015funun, enflasyonu fiyat istikrar\u0131yla uyumlu bir aral\u0131kta tutarken ekonomik geli\u015fmeyi de desteklemek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uygun olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itmesi ve orta vadeli bask\u0131lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda enflasyon tahminini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti ve projeksiyonlar 18 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 16\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. ABD Dolar Endeksi 101,40\u2019a dokunduktan sonra 101 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,22 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan %5,17 yak\u0131n\u0131nda kald\u0131. CME FedWatch, Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %66 olarak fiyatlarken, gelecek hafta PCE enflasyonu, ISM \u0130malat PMI ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verileri izlenecek.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in orta vadeli USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. SNB\u2019nin politika faizini %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131, frang\u0131 y\u00fcksek getirili carry trade i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in ideal bir fonlama para birimi haline getiriyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2000\u2019lerin ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen t\u00fcrden uzun s\u00fcreli para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayabilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftan\u0131n kritik ABD PCE enflasyonu ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde, prim erimesi riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen jeopolitik ko\u015fullar\u0131n kolayl\u0131kla tetikleyebilece\u011fi \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131nda ani \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sermayemizi korur. Strateji, CME FedWatch Arac\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015faret etti\u011fi %66 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc getiriyi yakalamam\u0131za imkan tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bor\u00e7lanma piyasalar\u0131nda, ABD Hazine tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya uzun vadeli tahvil enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %5,17 civar\u0131nda konsolide olurken, tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler son %5,22 zirvesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n 2007 yaz\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Fed yetkilileri bir sonraki toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemlerini korudu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, daha y\u00fcksek faizlere y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma cazibesini koruyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\/Frank 0,8285\u2019te tutunurken faiz makas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: SNB %0\u2019da, Fed \u015fahin. Carry trade bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir. PCE-NFP \u00f6ncesi bull call spread ile USD\/CHF yukar\u0131 potansiyeli hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t