{"id":68859,"date":"2026-09-25T20:51:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T20:51:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/eur-usd-extends-weekly-losing-streak-as-fed-tightening-bets-lift-dollar-ecb-seen-on-knife-edge\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T20:51:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T20:51:43","slug":"eur-usd-extends-weekly-losing-streak-as-fed-tightening-bets-lift-dollar-ecb-seen-on-knife-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-usd-extends-weekly-losing-streak-as-fed-tightening-bets-lift-dollar-ecb-seen-on-knife-edge\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini uzatt\u0131; ECB b\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydederek Temmuz sonundan bu yana ilk kez 1,1360 b\u00f6lgesine geri \u00e7ekildi. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi izlerken; parite Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetmi\u015f olsa da, a\u011fustosta 1,1700\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerindeki zirveden yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 sent gerilemi\u015f durumda. Faiz beklentileri belirleyici oldu: piyasalar son FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gidebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verirken, artan enerji maliyetleri Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon risklerini g\u00fcndemde tutarak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ek ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemi canl\u0131 tuttu. Mevcut fiyatlama, y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 33 baz puanl\u0131k ECB s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve 29 Ekim karar\u0131 \u201cb\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

Pozisyonlanma daha az negatif bir tabloya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 15 Eyl\u00fcl ile biten haftada CFTC verileri, euroda net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 27 bin kontrata geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken; 4 haftal\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim yakla\u015f\u0131k 32,1 bine y\u00fckseldi. A\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest) yakla\u015f\u0131k 920 bine geriledi; bu da yeni al\u0131mdan ziyade k\u0131sa pozisyon kapatma (short covering) dinami\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Spek\u00fclatif maruziyet (Speculative Exposure) -%2,93\u2019e iyile\u015firken y\u00fczdelik dilimi 13,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Net Pozisyon Y\u00fczdelik Dilimi (Net Position Percentile) 11,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. B\u00f6ylece pozisyonlanma tarihsel olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cay\u0131\u201d tarafta, ancak daha az s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Gelecek haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde Almanya ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verileri ile ABD\u2019de JOLTS, ADP ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileri; ayr\u0131ca ECB ve Fed yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 bulunuyor. Euronun k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki pay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 20 AB \u00fclkesinde kullan\u0131l\u0131yor, 2022\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde hacimle k\u00fcresel FX i\u015flem cirosunun %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu ve EUR\/USD i\u015flemlerin tahmini %30\u2019unu temsil ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasa Dinamikleri ve K\u0131sa Vadeli Volatilite Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131yla EUR\/USD\u2019nin a\u011fustosta 1,1700\u2019e yak\u0131n zirvesinden 1,1360 seviyesine do\u011fru geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 29 Ekim\u2019deki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki kritik ABD istihdam verileri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasada dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, genel trende kar\u015f\u0131 durmak yerine bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

BIS verilerine g\u00f6re EUR\/USD, 7,5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil eden d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en likit d\u00f6viz \u00e7ifti olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tarihsel veriler, ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n maj\u00f6r para birimlerinde genellikle y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa sahne oldu\u011funu; yaz aylar\u0131na k\u0131yasla i\u015flem aral\u0131klar\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman %10 ila %15 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu mevsimsel fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n\n

Spek\u00fclatif Pozisyonlanma ve Taktik F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n\n

Son CFTC Commitments of Traders verileri, euroda spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 27.000 kontrata geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin agresif yeni al\u0131mdan ziyade k\u0131sa pozisyon kapatmalar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015fler yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon tesis etmek i\u00e7in stratejik f\u0131rsatlar olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu bask\u0131 ECB\u2019yi ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabilir; ancak piyasa Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ABD Dolar\u0131 getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Bu devam eden temel ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in euroda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 tavsiye ediliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dikkat: EUR\/USD \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, 1,1360\u2019a indi. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken piyasa Fed\u2019de ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, ECB\u2019de 33 bp fiyatl\u0131yor. CFTC net short 27 bin; y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t