{"id":68857,"date":"2026-09-25T18:52:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T18:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/us-yields-climb-on-resilient-data-as-markets-brace-for-payrolls-and-potential-fed-hike\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T18:52:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T18:52:29","slug":"us-yields-climb-on-resilient-data-as-markets-brace-for-payrolls-and-potential-fed-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/us-yields-climb-on-resilient-data-as-markets-brace-for-payrolls-and-potential-fed-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 verilerle ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseliyor; piyasalar tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ve olas\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Diren\u00e7li ABD verileri, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 iterken, bu durum ABD dolar\u0131na destek veriyor ve faizlere duyarl\u0131 ile carry odakl\u0131 varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Dikkatler, haftaya a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 raporuna\u2014ba\u015fl\u0131ca etkinlik riski olarak\u2014\u00e7evriliyor. Bloomberg konsens\u00fcs\u00fcne g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, A\u011fustos\u2019taki 162 bin seviyesinden 100 bine gerilemesi beklenirken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,1\u2019de korunaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh, daha g\u00fcncel bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi olarak ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131na i\u015faret etse de piyasalar \u00fccret bordrolar\u0131 (payrolls) verisini h\u00e2l\u00e2 ana odak noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

Ay boyunca ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretmesiyle birlikte, istihdam verisinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz riski art\u0131yor; bu da Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek getirilerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Fed\u2019den gelen son mesajlar \u015fahin tonda kal\u0131rken, New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Williams ve Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hammack enflasyon risklerinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7arp\u0131k oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti; Philadelphia Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Paulson ise enflasyon \u0131l\u0131mlamazsa \u201cm\u00fctevaz\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n\u201d gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Ekim\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Diren\u00e7li Veriler ve Y\u00fckselen Tahvil Getirileri<\/h3>\n\n

Diren\u00e7li ekonomik veriler ile y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da do\u011frudan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. G\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin yeniden %4,20 seviyesine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, faizlere duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klar yo\u011fun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceliklendirmesi ve artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130stihdam Raporu Volatilitesi ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam raporu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in radar\u0131m\u0131zdaki en kritik risk unsuru. Konsens\u00fcs tahmin tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n m\u00fctevaz\u0131 100 bin artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olsa da, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geriledi. Bu tablo, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa ve piyasalarda sert bir reaksiyonu tetikleyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Bu volatiliteyi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, istihdam verisinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon d\u00f6nemlerinde gelen pozitif istihdam s\u00fcrprizleri, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni tek seansta %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, nihai y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun beklenen fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejilerini de de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Ekim\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatlarken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu piyasada bask\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, getirilerdeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131 incelemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Enflasyon riskleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7arp\u0131k kal\u0131rsa, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gelmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler ABD istihdam raporunda: Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek enerjiyle tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseliyor, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ba\u015fvurular s\u00fcrpriz riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor; Ekim\u2019de %70 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor, riskli varl\u0131klar bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t