{"id":68854,"date":"2026-09-25T16:51:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T16:51:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dollar-firms-on-bond-sell-off-as-oil-holds-traders-price-more-fed-tightening\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T16:51:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T16:51:29","slug":"dollar-firms-on-bond-sell-off-as-oil-holds-traders-price-more-fed-tightening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dollar-firms-on-bond-sell-off-as-oil-holds-traders-price-more-fed-tightening\/","title":{"rendered":"Tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken petrol yatay seyrediyor, piyasalar Fed\u2019den daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arka u\u00e7 tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f tonuyla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelerek Dolar\u0131n son kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 uzatmas\u0131na ve konsolide etmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. BM zirvesinin K\u00f6rfez\u2019de bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme dair somut iyimserlik \u00fcretememesi sonras\u0131 petrol de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik kademeli bir anla\u015fma etraf\u0131nda ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ham petrol\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; ancak hareket birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Fiyatlar ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyelere geri gelirken, tahvil piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, USD\u2019yi enerji kaynakl\u0131 zemin ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyle destekliyor. Brent\u2019in ay sonuna kadar 110 dolar\/varil seviyesine ula\u015fma alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu fiyatlan\u0131rken, ABD k\u0131sa vadeli faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 da yukar\u0131 kayd\u0131. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k SOFR son 48 saatte yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 baz puan y\u00fckselerek, olas\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

Uzun S\u00fcreli Bir Dolar Rallisine Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n

Artan tahvil getirileri ve k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin USD\u2019yi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara uzun soluklu bir dolar rallisine pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Dolar k\u0131sa vadeli temellere k\u0131yasla gerilmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, devam eden k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuyor. Eyl\u00fcl 2026 sonlar\u0131nda ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %3,6 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, FX opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 daha zay\u0131f maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n

Enerji ve Faiz T\u00fcrevlerinde F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n

Jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, \u00f6zellikle Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri ve al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin son ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcphelerin, petroldeki erken geri \u00e7ekilmeleri h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirmesi, piyasan\u0131n kesinti riskine son derece duyarl\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. K\u00fcresel Brent fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k sergilemesiyle, g\u00f6sterge kontratta ay sonuna kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolara do\u011fru bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesiyle daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k SOFR\u2019un son 48 saatte yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 baz puan artmas\u0131\u2014\u015fahin merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerinin geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f gibi t\u00fcrev stratejiler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrebilecek bu makroekonomik bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uygun konumda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tahvil getirileri t\u0131rman\u0131yor, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Dolar rallisi uzuyor. Petrol jeopolitik primle diren\u00e7li, Brent\u2019te 110$ hedefi masada. Fed \u015fahinle\u015fmesiyle SOFR y\u00fckseliyor; USD call, Brent long \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t