K\u00fcresel tahvil getirileri hafta boyunca y\u00fckseldi; y\u00fckseli\u015fe, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %4,95\u2019ten per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %5,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanan ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisi \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. Avrupa ve Japonya tahvillerinde de sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; getiriler d\u00f6ng\u00fcde yeni zirvelere \u00e7\u0131karken, bu harekete daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131 ve yatay seyreden hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 e\u015flik etti. Hareket k\u0131sa vadede daha keskin seyretti; bu, ilave merkez bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 beklentilerinin getiri e\u011frisi boyunca fiyatlanmas\u0131yla uyumlu. Arka plan ise bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi endi\u015felerinden ziyade daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri ve daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ABD PMI verisi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizi tetikledi; bile\u015fik endeks hem imalat hem hizmetlerdeki iyile\u015fme ile be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI da tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131 ancak daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir farkla. Asya\u2019da G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin eyl\u00fcl ihracat\u0131 ve Tayvan\u2019\u0131n a\u011fustos ihracat sipari\u015fleri ivmelenmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; her ikisi de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretti ve veri merkezi \u00e7iplerine y\u00f6nelik yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 talebin devam\u0131yla uyumlu. Enerji piyasalar\u0131 dalgaland\u0131: Brent sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledikten sonra per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 108 dolara toparland\u0131. Bu s\u0131rada Washington, kas\u0131m ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde dizel ihracat\u0131na 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir yasak se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc art\u0131rd\u0131: ABD-\u00c7in ticaret ate\u015fkesi 10 Ocak\u2019a kadar iki ay uzat\u0131l\u0131rken, Almanya\u2019da AfD Saksonya-Anhalt\u2019ta %44 ve Mecklenburg-Vorpommern\u2019de %38 oy ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirileri %5,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa ucunda s\u00fcregelen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. FED\u2019in inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ve Hazine tahvillerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyonlar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozisyonlama sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f dalgalar\u0131nda 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ile 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, e\u011friyi yatayla\u015ft\u0131rma (curve-flattening) i\u015flemleri risk d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f getiriler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en g\u00fcvenilir sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n
Tayvan ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den teknoloji ihracat\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 %70\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama, yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131 patlamas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2len h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ivmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck yar\u0131 iletken endeksleri ve teknoloji odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son veriler, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 donan\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 150 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerinde paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) LEAPS pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98-108 dolar band\u0131nda sert dalgalanmas\u0131yla birlikte, enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde son derece taktiksel bir yakla\u015f\u0131m gerekiyor. Kas\u0131m ara se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fcndeme gelen 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ABD dizel ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, yerel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ciddi arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi son derece muhtemel. Y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden politika kaynakl\u0131 oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Brent\u2019te straddle ya da geni\u015f bantl\u0131 strangle opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019daki siyasi kaymalar ve 10 Ocak\u2019a uzat\u0131lan ge\u00e7ici ABD-\u00c7in ticaret ate\u015fkesi piyasalar\u0131 tetikte tutarken jeopolitik gerilimler de y\u00fckseliyor. Ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde olas\u0131 ani bozulmalara kar\u015f\u0131, S&P 500 ve Euro Stoxx 50\u2019de paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131yla hisse portf\u00f6ylerinin hedge edilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, VIX gibi piyasa oynakl\u0131k endekslerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck ikili zirveler ve y\u00fcksek riskli ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesindeki haftalarda ortalama %15 y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftaya bakarken, yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam raporu ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyon verilerini k\u0131sa vadeli swap pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamak i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesinle\u015ftirerek tahvil getirilerini k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte daha da yukar\u0131 itecektir. Y\u00fcksek etkili bu veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011ferlendirebilmek i\u00e7in i\u015flem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin muhafazak\u00e2r tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek nakit tamponu korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,20\u2019yi a\u015farak k\u00fcresel getirileri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI ve petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentileri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; teknoloji ihracat\u0131 %70 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, jeopolitik riskler t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t