Petroldeki d\u00fczeltme, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in ABD\u2019li ve \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakereciler aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 hafifletti ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bununla birlikte dolar, ABD ile G6 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu r\u00fczg\u00e2r ise di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131yla zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; bu durum Fed ile politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 daraltarak dolar\u0131n haziran zirvesinin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine yerle\u015fmesini engelleyebilir.<\/p>\n
S\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 bu \u201ctavan\u201da kar\u015f\u0131 denge unsuru olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Temmuz ay\u0131na kadar olan 12 ayda yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar; Hazine tahvilleri ve bonolar\u0131, \u015firket tahvilleri, hisse senetleri ve devlet destekli kurum tahvilleri d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere toplam 1.754 milyar dolarl\u0131k uzun vadeli ABD menkul k\u0131ymeti biriktirdi; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ABD d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 -743 milyar dolar oldu. Bu fark, k\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131nda yak\u0131nsama dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlasa bile, dolara y\u00f6nelik altta yatan talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n istikrar kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6vizdeki son ivmeyi so\u011futmas\u0131yla, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dar bir i\u015flem band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r dolar paritelerinde iron condor veya short strangle gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejilere odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, dolar haziran zirvelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlan\u0131rken prim erimesinden (theta) getiri elde etmemize imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz makas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir miktar destek sa\u011flasa da, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131 USD\u2019de belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131na g\u00f6re getiri primi yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 baz puan civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor; bu da politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutuyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde yabanc\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019e ayak uydurmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyerek, kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde USD y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa da, yabanc\u0131 sermayede b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli giri\u015f dolar i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a sa\u011flam bir \u201ctaban\u201d olu\u015fturuyor. Son Hazine Uluslararas\u0131 Sermaye (TIC) verileri, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l 1,6 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli ABD menkul k\u0131ymeti ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu tutar ABD\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla telafi ediyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc altta yatan talebi, put opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 fiyatlarken g\u00fcvenilir destek seviyelerini belirlemek i\u00e7in kullanabiliriz.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden 70 dolar\u0131n ortalar\u0131na do\u011fru gerilemesi, k\u00fcresel tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri k\u00fcresel tahvil getirileri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltarak, k\u0131sa vadede agresif USD al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip h\u00e2le getiriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, petrole ba\u011fl\u0131 ani oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan ekim ay\u0131 enerji raporlar\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde d\u00fczeltme ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleriyle dolar rallisi soluklan\u0131yor: faiz fark\u0131 destek verse de politika yak\u0131nsamas\u0131 \u201ctavan\u201d yarat\u0131yor. Yabanc\u0131 1,7 trilyon $ al\u0131m taban; USD band\u0131nda, range opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t