Alt\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131 ve Hazine tahvil getirileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan duraklama e\u011filimine girerken, iki seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sonras\u0131nda Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yataya yak\u0131n seyretti. XAU\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 4.244 dolara temas etmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.305 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, haftal\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelmi\u015f durumdayd\u0131. Faiz beklentileri bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam etti: Fed ge\u00e7en hafta faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131 %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; projeksiyonlar, 18 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 16\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l en az bir ek ad\u0131m daha bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %71 olarak fiyatlarken, DXY 101,40 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan 101 civar\u0131nda tutundu ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,22\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,17\u2019ye geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar ve veriler odakta kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130ran, belirli ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yedi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 teklif ederken, ABD ve \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer a\u015famal\u0131 bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ancak hen\u00fcz bir ilerleme sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc veri takviminde Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin nihai verisi yer al\u0131yor; gelecek hafta ise \u00c7ar\u015famba PCE enflasyonu, Per\u015fembe ISM \u0130malat PMI ve Cuma tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) izlenecek. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 20 periyotluk SMA olan 4.299 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, alt Bollinger band\u0131 4.237 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; RSI 51 civar\u0131nda seyrederken MACD hafif pozitif b\u00f6lgede. Diren\u00e7 4.330 ve 4.362 dolar seviyelerinde, ard\u0131ndan 4.450-4.500 dolar band\u0131nda; destek ise 4.299, 4.237 ve 4.150-4.200 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n 4.305 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve gelecek hafta PCE enflasyonu ile Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam gibi kritik veriler a\u00e7\u0131klanacakken, piyasa volatilitesinde belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler, net bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden yakla\u015fan sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon straddle veya strangle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmeli. Tarihsel veriler, istihdam ve enflasyon gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck raporlar \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fcnlerde alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin genellikle %15 ila %20 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine getirisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,17 ile son derece y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, alt\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ekim ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k %71\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, prim toplamak amac\u0131yla alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde bear call spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k reel getiriler belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, alt\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 jeopolitik panik deste\u011fi olmad\u0131k\u00e7a yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu korumakta zorlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Makro ortam ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da s\u00fcregelen gerilimleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde petrol arz\u0131nda aksama riskini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz. Ani jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa alt\u0131n vadeli pozisyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken koruyucu out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji, beklenmedik jeopolitik man\u015fetlerin alt\u0131n\u0131 4.330 dolardaki yak\u0131n direncin \u00fczerine itmesi durumunda korunmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde Bollinger orta band\u0131ndaki 4.299 dolar deste\u011fi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 4 saatlik grafikte bu seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.237 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerilemeyi tetikleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, alt\u0131n bu ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa, gelecek haftaki kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 4.300-4.330 dolar band\u0131nda yatay bir seyir beklenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda nefes molas\u0131: XAU\/USD 4.305\u2019te yatay, haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte. Fed s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu, %5,17 10Y ve DXY 101 bask\u0131 kuruyor. PCE-NFP \u00f6ncesi volatilite; straddle\/strangle, bear call spread, 4.299 deste\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t