{"id":68848,"date":"2026-09-25T12:52:32","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T12:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/feds-williams-flags-persistent-supply-shocks-as-dollar-index-slips-and-ai-productivity-gains-elude-view\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T12:52:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T12:52:32","slug":"feds-williams-flags-persistent-supply-shocks-as-dollar-index-slips-and-ai-productivity-gains-elude-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/feds-williams-flags-persistent-supply-shocks-as-dollar-index-slips-and-ai-productivity-gains-elude-view\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in Williams\u2019\u0131, Dolar Endeksi gerilerken kal\u0131c\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti; YZ kaynakl\u0131 verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Oxford \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir panelde, Fed\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Williams, tarifeler ve artan enerji maliyetleri kal\u0131c\u0131 bir enflasyona yol a\u00e7masa bile, bu \u015foklar\u0131n fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda enflasyonist bask\u0131 kayna\u011f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici \u015foklar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesini engellemesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Williams, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n verimlilik \u00fczerinde hen\u00fcz bir etkisini g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini de s\u00f6yledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar daha geni\u015fletti ve haber yaz\u0131m saati itibar\u0131yla %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 101,05 civar\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n

Dolar Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Arz Kaynakl\u0131 Enflasyona Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

Kal\u0131c\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin son merkez bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi 101,05 seviyesine do\u011fru gerilerken, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n dolar \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini veya son d\u00f6nemde 1,1100 \u00fczerindeki g\u00fcc\u00fcyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan EUR\/USD paritesinde uzun pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 risklerini geri plana itip arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc sorunlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri ortadan kalkt\u0131k\u00e7a dolar\u0131n momentumu zay\u0131flama e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonu \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan ziyade arz \u015foklar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, yap\u0131\u015fkan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla emtia t\u00fcrevlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yap\u0131sal arz kesintileri d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fler g\u00f6steren ham petrol ve hammaddeler \u00fczerinde uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. 2026\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin son ticaret verileri, k\u00fcresel navlun maliyetlerinde istikrarl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek bu emtia lehine g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz Stratejileri ve Teknoloji Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde Volatilite<\/h3>\n

Faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda, \u00fccret kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131 Fed\u2019e ekonomiyi destekleme konusunda daha fazla esneklik sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerin uzun vadeli faizlere k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 gerileyece\u011fi beklentisiyle, Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisine konumlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Fed politikas\u0131ndaki benzer de\u011fi\u015fimler, otuz g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde getiri fark\u0131nda 40 baz puanl\u0131k bir daralmaya tipik olarak yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, yapay zek\u00e2dan hen\u00fcz net bir verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi nedeniyle, y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemelere sahip teknoloji hisseleri bir \u201cger\u00e7eklik kontrol\u00fc\u201d ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir. Bu belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlamak i\u00e7in, beklenen volatilite dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeksler \u00fczerinde straddle stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Mevcut opsiyon verileri, teknoloji hisselerinde ima edilen volatilitenin son bir ayda %12 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n daha geni\u015f fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Williams\u2019tan arz \u015foku uyar\u0131s\u0131 dolar\u0131n tansiyonunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc: DXY 101,05\u2019e kayd\u0131. \u00dccret bask\u0131s\u0131 yok, ge\u00e7ici \u015foklar kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n. Strateji: dolar put\/EURUSD long, emtia call, dikle\u015fen e\u011fri, teknoloji straddle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t