WTI, haftal\u0131k zirveler olan 96,00 dolar civar\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 91,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde dengelendi ve 91,00\u201392,00 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda K\u00f6rfez \u00fcreticilerinin ham petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar yumu\u015farken, Yemen\u2019den \u0130ran destekli Husilerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim piyasaya destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Arz hik\u00e2yesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ABD-\u0130ran temaslar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler ve yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelen ate\u015fkes giri\u015fimi, jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc oda\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg verileri, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 \u015fu ana kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden Suudi petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnde 5 milyon varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi zirvesine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu rakam a\u011fustosta 3,4 milyon, temmuzda ise 4,5 milyon varil seviyesindeydi. Kaynaklar, Irak, Kuveyt ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin de, transponderleri kapal\u0131 gemiler de dahil olmak \u00fczere, sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Financial Times, Tahran\u2019\u0131n haziran tarihli bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131 ve bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerisi sundu\u011funu bildirdi. ABD verileri ise dengeleyici bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: 19 Eyl\u00fcl haftas\u0131nda ticari petrol stoklar\u0131, 700 bin varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 2,96 milyon varil artt\u0131; bir \u00f6nceki hafta 640 bin varil gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 91,00\u201396,00 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bant hareketi niteli\u011finde bir oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcndeki son geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan konsolidasyonun s\u00fcrmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli iron condor veya strangle stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131, belirgin bir y\u00f6n olu\u015fmamas\u0131ndan faydalanmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu konsolidasyon, K\u00f6rfez arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik risklerin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde besleniyor.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken fiziksel ham petrol giri\u015finde belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevkiyatlar\u0131 bu eyl\u00fclde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5 milyon varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak, a\u011fustostaki 3,4 milyon varilden sert bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yapt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) son verileri, ticari stoklarda 2,96 milyon varillik beklenmedik bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek, k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat ivmesini daha da zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez jeopolitik ortam nedeniyle y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7ekli short pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130ran yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes \u00f6nermi\u015f olsa da, Husilerin devam eden f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ani arz kesintisi riskini son derece y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 96,00 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma amac\u0131yla out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, benzer arz-talep \u00e7eki\u015fmelerinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility) \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiyat hareketlerini abartma e\u011filiminde olur; bu da opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir. Haftal\u0131k stok raporlar\u0131 ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f verilerine ili\u015fkin resmi g\u00fcncellemeler yak\u0131ndan izlenerek, kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike) buna g\u00f6re ayarlanmal\u0131. \u015eimdilik 91,00\u201396,00 dolar band\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda pozisyon almak en taktiksel yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI 96 dolardan 91\u201392 band\u0131na \u00e7ekildi; K\u00f6rfez\u2019den artan ihracat ve ABD stok s\u00fcrprizi bask\u0131 yaparken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve \u0130ran temaslar\u0131 fiyat\u0131 ayakta tutuyor: bant oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131r olun.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t