{"id":68839,"date":"2026-09-25T09:51:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T09:51:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dollar-rally-stalls-as-fed-hawkishness-lifts-treasury-yields-pressuring-euro-sterling-and-gold\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:51:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T09:51:31","slug":"dollar-rally-stalls-as-fed-hawkishness-lifts-treasury-yields-pressuring-euro-sterling-and-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dollar-rally-stalls-as-fed-hawkishness-lifts-treasury-yields-pressuring-euro-sterling-and-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi Hazine tahvili getirilerini y\u00fckseltirken dolar rallisi duraklad\u0131; euro, sterlin ve alt\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), piyasalar\u0131n A\u011fustos Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri ve revize Eyl\u00fcl Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verilerini beklemesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 101,00 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeden \u00f6nce haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini Temmuz sonu zirvesi olan 101,40 civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fahin Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 Dolar\u2019a talebi canl\u0131 tutarken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisinin Haziran 2007\u2019den bu yana ilk kez %5,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Philadelphia Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Anna Paulson, tarihi ortalama 7\/10\u2019a k\u0131yasla 8,1\/10\u2019luk bir FXS Speechtracker puan\u0131 kaydederek, Fed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefini korudu\u011fu ortamda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikan\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n

FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD 1,1400 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, GBP\/USD haftaya ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %1\u2019i a\u015fan d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 1,3200\u2019nin \u00fczerinde dengelendi. USD\/JPY, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,00\u2019un \u00fczerindeki d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n zirvesi ve art arda be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 158,00\u2019e do\u011fru gev\u015fedi. Alt\u0131n 4.300 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken haftay\u0131 %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ekside ge\u00e7irdi; 4.275,03 dolar\/ons seviyesine gerileyen alt\u0131n, haftal\u0131k bazda %2,44 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Arka planda, Dolar\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel FX i\u015flem hacminin %88\u2019inden fazlas\u0131ndaki rol\u00fc (2022\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 6,6 trilyon dolar) ile Fed\u2019in finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 etkilemek i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131, niceliksel gev\u015feme (QE) ve niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT) ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Dolar G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Forex Opsiyonlar\u0131nda Faiz Odakl\u0131 F\u0131rsat<\/h3>\n

\u015eahin Fed s\u00f6yleminin tahvil getirilerini \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda Dolar\u2019\u0131n hakimiyetinin s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %5,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2007 yaz\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131yla, ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Dolar al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji tarihsel e\u011filimlerle de destekleniyor; benzer getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 2023 sonlar\u0131nda Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek paritelerde aktif k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131; \u00f6zellikle EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019nin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1400 alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve GBP\/USD\u2019nin haftal\u0131k %1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 zorlanmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son ekonomik veriler de bu duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor: ABD\u2019de ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 200 binin alt\u0131na gerilemesi, s\u0131k\u0131 bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY ve Alt\u0131n Piyasalar\u0131nda Volatiliteye Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019de 158,00 seviyesi etraf\u0131ndaki sert volatilite hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun straddle stratejileriyle pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ralliyle 159,00\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f olsa da, yenin bu seviyelerin \u00f6tesinde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin resmi m\u00fcdahale riski tarihsel olarak belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131yor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nceki m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ait verileri, yenin savunulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in tek bir ayda 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hamleleri olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, alt\u0131n t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 geleneksel uzun (long) duru\u015ftan uzakla\u015facak \u015fekilde yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.275,03 dolara gerileyerek haftay\u0131 %2,44 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel jeopolitik gerilimlere ra\u011fmen geleneksel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d rol\u00fcnden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Do\u011frudan call almak yerine, genel riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc dikey spread (bear vertical spread) stratejilerinin tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi %5,2 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; DXY 101,40\u2019\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcp 101\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Dolar opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m, EUR\/GBP\u2019de put, USD\/JPY straddle; alt\u0131nda bear spread \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t