Reuters, ABD\u2019li ve \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakerecilerin, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fc yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 ve Washington\u2019un ekonomik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ekseninde, sava\u015f riskinden kademeli bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolunu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; ancak iki taraf\u0131n da ilk ad\u0131m\u0131 atmak istemedi\u011fini bildirdi. Haber sonras\u0131 Brent petrol 108 dolar\/varilden 105 dolar\/varile geriledi ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc 98 dolar\/varil seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. \u00c7ekirdek tahvillerde ise sat\u0131\u015flar h\u0131z kazand\u0131: ABD getiri e\u011frisi \u201cbear steepening\u201d ile dikle\u015fti; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2,8 bp, 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 9,1 bp y\u00fckseldi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri Haziran 2004\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karken, 3 y\u0131l ve \u00fczeri vadeler 5% e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kapand\u0131. Euro faizlerinde de EUR swap e\u011frisi dikle\u015fti; k\u0131sa u\u00e7 6,3 bp gerilerken uzun u\u00e7 2,5 bp\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckseldi. Hisse senetleri g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,5\u2019e varan kay\u0131plarla kapatt\u0131; EUR\/USD ise 1,1380 civar\u0131nda kapan\u0131rken y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviye olan 1,1325 yak\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta iki \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131, ge\u00e7en haftaki 6-3 oylaman\u0131n Bank Rate\u2019i %3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi para piyasas\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapt\u0131. Piyasalar Kas\u0131m\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %87 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor ve gelecek yaza kadar politika faizinin %4,75\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00fc\u00e7 adet ilave 25 bp art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Gilt\u2019lerde sat\u0131\u015f geldi; iki g\u00fcnde 12-14 bp ek y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Di\u011fer tarafta Ren Nehri\u2019nde Kaub \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm istasyonu 4 santimetre ile yeni bir dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu durum ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k kapasitesini s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ise Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; GfK endeksi -14\u2019ten -13\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (beklenti -16).<\/p>\n—\n
M\u00fczakereciler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kademeli bir senaryoyu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 i\u015flemcilerinin enerji piyasalar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 108 dolardan 105 dolara gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131yla birlikte, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in bear put spread kurgular\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da beklenmedik diplomatik k\u0131r\u0131lmalar, jeopolitik risk priminin erimesiyle ham petrolde h\u0131zl\u0131 %10-%15 d\u00fczeltmeleri tetikleyebiliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD getiri e\u011frisindeki agresif \u201cbear steepening\u201d hareketi ve \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00fczeri vadelerin kritik %5 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, uzun vade\/durasyonlu tahviller \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Daha geni\u015f \u201ctail\u201d veren ve ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan bid-to-cover oranlar\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan zay\u0131f Hazine ihaleleri, birincil piyasa yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n arzla belirgin \u015fekilde doygunla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Reel faizlerin normalle\u015fmesinin s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131nda i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya uzun vadeli tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonla hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Kas\u0131m\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %87 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesiyle, sterline duyarl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131 yetkilileri, yurti\u00e7i \u015firketlerin y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerini s\u00fcresiz olarak absorbe edemeyece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131yor; bu da gelecek yaza kadar %4,75\u2019e do\u011fru bir patikay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, artan faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131 oynamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sterlin vadeli kontratlar\u0131na veya GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bakabilir.<\/p>\n
Ren Nehri\u2019nde Kaub g\u00f6stergesinin 4 santimetre gibi rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fckte seyretmesi, Avrupa tedarik zincirlerini ciddi \u015fekilde aksatacak ve navlun maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekecek. 2022\u2019deki \u015fiddetli kurakl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde nehir \u00fczerindeki mavna navlunlar\u0131 %400\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde artm\u0131\u015f, sanayi \u00fcretimini bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015f ve i\u00e7 ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerini s\u0131\u00e7ratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015fokun Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna do\u011frudan yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR swaplar\u0131nda \u201creceiver\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek risk ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n—\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 \u015fu ana kadar yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 gerilemi\u015f olsa da, daha y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri ve enerji bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u015firket marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip olan 1,1325\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretmesiyle, USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (USD call) savunmac\u0131 bir hamle olarak olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Hisse riskinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131; odak noktas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz ve faiz taraf\u0131ndaki g\u00f6reli de\u011fer (relative-value) i\u015flemlerine kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrolde soluk ald\u0131rd\u0131: Brent 108\u2019den 105\u2019e indi. Ancak ABD tahvillerinde sert \u201cbear steepening\u201d ve %5 \u00fczeri uzun vade bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; BoE kas\u0131mda art\u0131\u015f sinyali verdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t