{"id":68836,"date":"2026-09-25T07:51:46","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:51:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rupee-recovers-as-rbi-dollar-sales-cap-usd-inr-despite-rising-us-yields-and-oil-volatility\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T07:51:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:51:46","slug":"rupee-recovers-as-rbi-dollar-sales-cap-usd-inr-despite-rising-us-yields-and-oil-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rupee-recovers-as-rbi-dollar-sales-cap-usd-inr-despite-rising-us-yields-and-oil-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Rupi, RBI\u2019nin Dolar Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 USD\/INR\u2019yi S\u0131n\u0131rlarken Artan ABD Tahvil Faizleri ve Petrol Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na Ra\u011fmen Toparland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi, birka\u00e7 seans s\u00fcren zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir miktar toparland\u0131; Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) m\u00fcdahalesi gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterilirken USD\/INR 95,96 \u00fczerindeki hareketlerini kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ramad\u0131. Reuters\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6rt trader\u0131n yorumlar\u0131na dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberine g\u00f6re merkez bankas\u0131, yerel spot piyasa a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce muhtemelen dolar satarak kurun 96\/dolar e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda daha diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Ancak bu soluklanma s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seyir ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 19 Ekim vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.950 Rs seviyesinde %2,3 gerilerken, son iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde sert y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi 5,23% civar\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n

MUFG, ABD getirilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aktivite verileri ve enerji maliyetleriyle yukar\u0131 itildi\u011fini belirtirken; ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin 14 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,9%\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n 5,0%\u2019\u0131n, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise 5,4%\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ti\u011fini kaydetti. Piyasalar Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 37 baz puan ilave Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) fiyatl\u0131yordu. Hindistan\u2019da a\u011fustos enflasyonu, revize edilen \u00f6nceki 4,5% seviyesinden y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 4,8%\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; MUFG, FY27\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda olas\u0131 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Teknik olarak USD\/INR 95,9205 seviyesindeydi; 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,6104\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde, RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 59,6 d\u00fczeyinde olup 96,00 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 97,00 civar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc referans olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n

Kur ve Enerji Piyasalar\u0131nda T\u00fcrev F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, paritenin 97,00 seviyesine do\u011fru yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/INR\u2019de bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leriyle uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. RBI\u2019nin yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahalesine ra\u011fmen, spot fiyat\u0131n 95,61\u2019deki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle altta yatan y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi korunuyor. Bu strateji a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, 96,00\u2019daki kilit diren\u00e7 a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

MCX Ham Petrol kontratlar\u0131nda sert volatilite ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.950 Rs civar\u0131nda fiyatlama g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ithal enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, yerel para birimi k\u00fcresel enerji \u015foklar\u0131na y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131r. Bu enerji t\u00fcrevlerini almak, daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6ylerimizde zay\u0131flayan rupinin olumsuz etkisini telafi etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 M\u00fcdahalesi Ortam\u0131nda Gelir ve Faiz Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli gelir i\u00e7in, 95,61\u2019deki yak\u0131n destek seviyesine yo\u011funla\u015fan USD\/INR put opsiyonlar\u0131nda yazma (short put) stratejisi uygulanmal\u0131d\u0131r. RBI\u2019nin 96,00 seviyesini agresif bi\u00e7imde savunmas\u0131 ve 680 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki d\u00f6viz rezervleriyle desteklenmesi, sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin kal\u0131c\u0131 olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Bu \u201cmerkez bankas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131\u201d, piyasa yatay seyrederken prim toplamak i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir kurulum sunar.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, yakla\u015fan Ekim politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yurti\u00e7i faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri 5,23% ile \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n seyrederken, RBI sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 yerel bor\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in yo\u011fun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalacakt\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u015fahin bir 50 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na pozisyon almak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki hamlesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan rasyonel bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rupi, RBI\u2019nin olas\u0131 dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla Cuma toparland\u0131; USD\/INR 96\u2019y\u0131 a\u015famad\u0131. Ancak y\u00fcksek petrol ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201dle ABD getirileri zirvede: 96 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 97 g\u00fcndemde. T\u00fcrev stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t