{"id":68832,"date":"2026-09-25T06:51:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:51:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/aud-jpy-edges-lower-as-firmer-yen-and-intervention-risk-offset-anticipated-rba-rate-rise\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T06:51:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:51:31","slug":"aud-jpy-edges-lower-as-firmer-yen-and-intervention-risk-offset-anticipated-rba-rate-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/aud-jpy-edges-lower-as-firmer-yen-and-intervention-risk-offset-anticipated-rba-rate-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/JPY, Yen\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve m\u00fcdahale riski beklenen RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 dengelerken geriliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 111,10 civar\u0131na geriledi; piyasalar olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 tetikte kal\u0131rken yen g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Japonya yetkilileri, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketlerin ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fini ve m\u00fcdahalenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir se\u00e7enek oldu\u011funu yineledi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ge\u00e7en hafta politika faizini %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken, ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u2014 Ekim\u2019de art arda bir ad\u0131m ihtimali d\u00e2hil \u2014 a\u00e7\u0131k kap\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131; iki yetkili karara muhalefet etti ve karar, baz\u0131 beklentilere k\u0131yasla daha az \u015fahin de\u011ferlendirildi. Faiz taraf\u0131nda, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) getirileri %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 30 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini test etti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n getiriler y\u00fckselirken yurt i\u00e7i tahvil pozisyonlanmas\u0131 temkinli seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n

Avustralya\u2019da piyasalar, gelecek hafta Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015fsizlikte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f de bu beklentiyi anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Teknik tarafta \u00e7apraz kur, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini koruyor. 14 periyotluk G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 41,70 civar\u0131nda ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7ler 111,70 ve ard\u0131ndan 112,80 seviyelerinde; daha yukar\u0131da 114,18 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek 110,00 seviyesinde; bunun alt\u0131nda 109,67 ve 109,20 izleniyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev Stratejisi ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

AUD\/JPY 111,10 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve 112,80\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f kal\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda savunmac\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015f benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Yakla\u015fan Japon d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riski ve teknik olarak zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 110,00 psikolojik seviyesini hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Bu kurgu, spotta k\u0131sa pozisyon alman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z riskine maruz kalmadan ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

RBA\u2019n\u0131n gelecek hafta 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, AUD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitede belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, A\u011fustos 2024\u2019te JPY ima edilen volatilitesinin %15\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi benzer para politikas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetikleyebiliyor. Bu artan belirsizli\u011fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, her iki y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla uzun straddle stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir; ancak genel e\u011filim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

De\u011fi\u015fen Getiri Farklar\u0131 ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirilerinin %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 30 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckselmesi, yen \u201ccarry trade\u201dini \u00e7\u00f6zmeye ba\u015flayan derin yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimlere i\u015faret ediyor. BoJ\u2019un %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti\u011fi son ad\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ekim\u2019de olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeminde tutmas\u0131yla, daha \u00f6nce Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen getiri fark\u0131 h\u0131zla daral\u0131yor. Uzun AUD\/JPY vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131na maruziyetin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; bunun yerine, eyl\u00fcl dip seviyesi olan 109,67\u2019nin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 beklerken zaman de\u011feri erimesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bear put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yen g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: AUD\/JPY 111,10\u2019a gerilerken m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseldi. BoJ %1,25 sonras\u0131 ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali, JGB %3+ ile bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; RBA art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklense de trend a\u015fa\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t