New York\u2019taki Bank of United States, mevduat sahiplerinin bankaya h\u00fccum etmesi (bank run) sonras\u0131nda 11 Aral\u0131k 1930\u2019da New York eyalet otoritelerince kapat\u0131ld\u0131; 400 binden fazla mevduat sahibi etkilendi. Mevduat b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, o tarihe kadar ABD\u2019deki en b\u00fcy\u00fck banka iflas\u0131yd\u0131. Olay, bankalar\u0131n mevduatlar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 rezerv olarak tutup kalan\u0131n\u0131 kredi ve yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi kesirli rezerv bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fleyi\u015fini ortaya koydu; \u00e7ok say\u0131da mevduat sahibi ayn\u0131 anda nakit talep etti\u011finde bu yap\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131labiliyor.<\/p>\n
Benzerlik, ka\u011f\u0131t y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin teslim edilebilir metal miktar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fabildi\u011fi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131yla kuruldu. Do\u011frulanamayan 100\u2019e 1 veya 250\u2019ye 1 gibi tahminler dola\u015fsa da, Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131na ait \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir bir \u201can foto\u011fraf\u0131\u201d kay\u0131tl\u0131 (registered) COMEX g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc, her bir fiziksel ons ba\u015f\u0131na be\u015fin biraz \u00fczerinde \u201cka\u011f\u0131t ons\u201da, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 5\u2019e 1\u2019e i\u015faret edecek \u015fekilde ortaya koydu. CME verileri, 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar 6.168 adet Eyl\u00fcl vade teslimat bildirimi oldu\u011funu ve bunun 30,84 milyon onsu kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n 10\u201317 Eyl\u00fcl aras\u0131nda COMEX kasalar\u0131ndan fiziksel olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 7,1 milyon ons (yakla\u015f\u0131k 223 ton) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da toplam envanterin yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,1\u2019ine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde kay\u0131tl\u0131 stoklar 1,4 milyon ons artarak 97,3 milyon onse y\u00fckselirken, \u201celigible\u201d 8,6 milyon ons d\u00fc\u015ferek 232,8 milyon onse geriledi ve toplam envanter 337,2 milyon onstan 330,1 milyon onsa indi; 7,1 milyon onsluk \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, 3\u20139 Ekim 2025\u2019teki 5,75 milyon onsluk gerilemeden yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck, 9\u201316 Ekim\u2019deki 13,96 milyon onsluk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ise yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde. Di\u011fer tarafta arka planda, son 12 ayda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6nce 50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine, ard\u0131ndan Ocak ay\u0131nda 120 dolara ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p sonras\u0131nda d\u00fczeltme getiren iki \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d (squeeze), \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ve k\u00fcm\u00fclatif a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 800 milyon onse yakla\u015fmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131; yer\u00fcst\u00fc stoklar 2010\u20132020 d\u00f6neminde 243 milyon ons artarken, son 15 y\u0131l i\u00e7in net 473 milyon onsluk bir erimenin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Faiz cephesinde verilen \u00f6rneklerde, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %5\u2019e yak\u0131n ve T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,5 oldu\u011fu senaryoda reel getirinin %1,5\u2019e i\u015faret etti\u011fi; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %3 getiri ve %5 T\u00dcFE\u2019de reel getirinin -%2 oldu\u011fu anlat\u0131ld\u0131. Tarihsel referanslarda, 1970\u2019lerde alt\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %2.329 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi; 1974\u2019te hazine bonolar\u0131n\u0131n %7,4 ve T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %12 oldu\u011fu (yakla\u015f\u0131k -%4,6 reel) ve A\u011fustos 1976\u2019dan Ocak 1980\u2019e kadar faizler %20\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131rken alt\u0131n\u0131n yediden fazla kat artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. Tart\u0131\u015fmada ayr\u0131ca para arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ve %2 T\u00dcFE hedefinin aritmeti\u011fine de\u011finilerek, bunun bile bile\u015fik etki hari\u00e7 be\u015f y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10, 10 y\u0131lda %20\u2019lik erozyona denk geldi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n—\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, Ekim ay\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken fiziki g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini tavsiye ediyoruz. Son veriler, Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131nda COMEX kasalar\u0131ndan 7 milyon onstan fazla fiziki g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun sadece bir haftada toplam envanterde kayda de\u011fer %2,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, nihayetinde fiyatlar\u0131 ons ba\u015f\u0131na 50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yan Ekim 2025 g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n erken a\u015famalar\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte ka\u011f\u0131t\/fiziki oran\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamak gerekir; mevcut durumda, kay\u0131tl\u0131 fiziki metalde her bir ons i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f adet ka\u011f\u0131t hak talebi bulunuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00f6zle\u015fme sahiplerinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 dahi fiziki teslimat isterse, sistem ciddi bir takas\/uzla\u015fma (clearing) bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131ndaki bu \u201ckesirli rezerv\u201d benzeri yap\u0131, k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131 ani ve sert \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d risklerine a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ciddiyetini anlamak i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f arz verilerine bak\u0131labilir. Silver Institute\u2019un son raporlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebinin art arda alt\u0131nc\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru gitti\u011fini ve k\u00fcm\u00fclatif a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 800 milyon onse yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bu devasa a\u00e7\u0131k, neredeyse k\u00fcresel maden \u00fcretiminin bir y\u0131l\u0131na yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc temsil ediyor ve sanayi al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yer\u00fcst\u00fc stoklar\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde eritmeye zorluyor.<\/p>\n—\n
Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %5\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretmesi nedeniyle k\u0131ymetli metalleri hatal\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u201cshort\u201dluyor. Oysa sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 as\u0131l belirleyen metri\u011fin, nominal getirilerin enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f h\u00e2li olan reel faiz oranlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurguluyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 1970\u2019lerin y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6neminde nominal faizler %10\u2019un \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015f olsa bile reel getiriler derin bi\u00e7imde negatif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f binlerce y\u00fczde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc volatiliteye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flayan uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yap\u0131sal arz a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve COMEX envanterindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin birle\u015fimi, \u015fu a\u015famada vadeli kontratlarda \u201c\u00e7\u0131plak\u201d short pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 son derece tehlikeli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonbahar d\u00f6nemine girerken, fizikiyle destekli t\u00fcrevlerde uzun maruziyeti korumak en ihtiyatl\u0131 strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 1930\u2019daki banka h\u00fccumu gibi, COMEX\u2019te \u201ckesirli rezerv\u201d riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: kay\u0131tl\u0131 g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte ka\u011f\u0131t\/fiziki oran\u0131 ~5:1. Eyl\u00fclde 7,1 milyon ons \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ve kronik arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, squeeze ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Reel faiz kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t