USD\/JPY, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci seansta y\u00fckseldi; geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc ve Yen \u00fczerindeki s\u00fcregelen bask\u0131 pariteyi destekledi. Parite 158,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 160 seviyesinden ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc telafi etti. Piyasalar, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika patikalar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan federal fonlama faizi %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunuyor ve fiyatlamalar yeni bir Fed hamlesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 58,4 ile be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130lk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ise 201 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 197 bine geriledi; \u00f6nceki veri 196 binden 198 bine revize edildi.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklerken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %5,16 civar\u0131nda; bu seviye 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. ABD Dolar Endeksi 101,25 civar\u0131nda ve 29 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine yak\u0131n. K\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle birlikte y\u00fcksek kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ve maliye politikalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle de ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Japonya\u2019da 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,08\u2019e y\u00fckselerek A\u011fustos 1996\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, BoJ\u2019un politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1,25\u2019e (31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi) \u00e7ekmesine ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Reuters, ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda kademeli bir plan \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; plan\u0131n ekonomik ablukan\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klara potansiyel eri\u015fimi i\u00e7erebilece\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, USD\/JPY paritesi kritik 160 seviyesine yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131rken Tokyo\u2019dan gelebilecek ani bir kur m\u00fcdahalesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda yeni tam bu fiyat seviyeleri civar\u0131nda yeni savunmak i\u00e7in 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde m\u00fcdahalede bulunmu\u015ftu. Portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in, resmi m\u00fcdahalenin tetikleyebilece\u011fi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %5,16 ile Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB faizinin %3,08 aras\u0131ndaki makas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de bu spread giderek daha istikrars\u0131z hale geliyor. BoJ\u2019un faizi 31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %1,25\u2019e yeni y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, Tokyo\u2019dan gelebilecek olas\u0131 \u015fahin bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, A\u011fustos 2024\u2019teki piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne benzer \u015fekilde carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131nda bir ba\u015fka b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyi tetikleyebilir. Volatilitenin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ortamda her iki y\u00f6nde de sert k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin dile getirilen ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakereleri emtia yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6zg\u00fcn bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Olas\u0131 bir ilerleme ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir; enerjisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %97\u2019sini ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131layan Japonya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu do\u011frudan olumlu olur. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Japon ekonomisinde olas\u0131 bir rahatlama rallisini de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla yen call opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar ile petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 birlikte kurmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY be\u015finci seansta y\u00fckselip 158,80\u2019e geldi; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, artan ABD faizleri ve PMI verisi etkili. 160 e\u015fi\u011finde Tokyo m\u00fcdahalesi riskiyle put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Petrol-Yen f\u0131rsat\u0131 var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t