Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi 2004\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; iki y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi uzun vadeli u\u00e7taki bu harekete paralel olarak gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 51.100 seviyesine indi\u2014Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey\u2014ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 politika faizine odaklansa da, fiyatlama en \u00e7ok yetkililerin do\u011frudan kontrol etmedi\u011fi vadede kayd\u0131; iki y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2023 zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrederken b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Williams, a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00f6nlendirme d\u00f6neminin sona erdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha beklemesini \u201cmakul\u201d olarak nitelendirdi. Philadelphia Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Paulson ise 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki 3,75\u20134,00% art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma gerekebilece\u011fini belirtti; tarife etkileri zay\u0131flarken enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemler Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek olarak fiyatlarken, 18 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 16\u2019s\u0131 bu y\u0131l en az bir ad\u0131m daha \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Di\u011fer yandan Brent varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1996\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Almanya 2026 i\u00e7in 525,5 milyar avroluk rekor bor\u00e7lanma \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bank of America, ABD federal faiz maliyetlerini 2. \u00e7eyrekte GSYH\u2019nin %3,3\u2019\u00fc olarak hesaplad\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2007\u2019de %5 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde bu oran %1,7 idi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k mortgage faizleri %7 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puan \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 51.500 ve 52.000\u2019de diren\u00e7, 51.100 ve 51.000 civar\u0131nda destek, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 50.250 civar\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI\u2019\u0131n 19 seviyesine yak\u0131n olmas\u0131 say\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Endeks 52.000 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nde k\u0131sa (short) tarafta pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeksin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 51.100 ile dip yapmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ilk a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefimiz 51.000; bunu 50.250 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) izliyor. Ancak g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na inerek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u00f6nce 51.500\u2019e do\u011fru k\u0131sa bir teknik tepki ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n temelinde, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizinin 2004\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 yat\u0131yor; hareket, y\u00fcksek kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 (sticky) enflasyonla destekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak uzun vadeli getiriler bu \u015fekilde h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, hisse de\u011ferlemeleri ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131r; bu, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin %5\u2019e dokundu\u011fu 2023 sonundaki tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa d\u00fczeltmelerine benzer. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n finans ajans\u0131n\u0131n 525,5 milyar avroluk rekor federal bor\u00e7lanma beklentisi ve ABD\u2019de faiz maliyetlerinin GSYH\u2019nin %3,3\u2019\u00fc ile rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun vadeli getirilerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, net faiz marjlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeden fayda sa\u011flayabilecek JPMorgan Chase hisselerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, konut piyasas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 hisselerde\u2014Home Depot ve Sherwin-Williams gibi\u2014sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 hedeflenmeli. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k mortgage faizinin %7 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, son on y\u0131ldaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde; bu da konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 keskin bi\u00e7imde so\u011futarak bu perakende devlerini y\u00fcksek derecede k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Portf\u00f6ylerin kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji enflasyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 da hedge edilmesi gerekiyor; Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi genel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 beslemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarla birle\u015fen bu enerji \u015foku, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Piyasa ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ana endekslerde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil faizleri sert t\u0131rmand\u0131: ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k 2004\u2019ten beri zirvede, Dow 51.100\u2019e indi. Fed\u2019de ek art\u0131\u015f sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Strateji: endekste short, bankada call, konut\/enerjide hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t