USD\/CAD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek temmuz ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 1,4113 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite ay genelinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 art\u0131da seyrederken, son 12 seansta yaln\u0131zca bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti; bunda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 etkili oldu. Kanada Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da CAD\u2019i destekleyemedi: man\u015fet sat\u0131\u015flar temmuzda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,7 geriledi (beklenti -%0,8), otomobil hari\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar da %0,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Hareket, iki y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 izledi. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi 2004\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %4,94 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %4,89 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 2 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,40\u2019a yak\u0131n; aradaki fark yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 baz puan. Piyasalar, ge\u00e7en haftaki 25 bp\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla federal fonlama faizinin %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan bir Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 101,37 civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yarak 29 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 198 binden (revize) 197 bine gerileyerek 201 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI ise eyl\u00fclde 56,0\u2019dan 58,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. CME FedWatch Tool, ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 g\u00f6steriyor (bir hafta \u00f6nce %55); BoC ise faizi yedi toplant\u0131d\u0131r %2,25\u2019te tutuyor. Benzin hari\u00e7 enflasyon temmuzda %2,2 olurken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti; WTI ise varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ay genelinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, USD\/CAD paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma devam beklentisiyle uzun (long) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ya da bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanarak pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin 1,4113 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve temmuz ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, teknik k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n 1,4250 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru alan b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu iyimser duru\u015f, Fed ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fan patikalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ve Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 baz puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri fark\u0131, bu rallinin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc konumunda. Tarihsel olarak, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 ABD lehine 100 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015fledi\u011finde, dolar\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcreli \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6nemleri ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu getiri ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli CAD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k USD taraf\u0131nda al\u0131m yaparak carry getirisinin hedeflenebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u00e7ekici bi\u00e7imde, Kanada Dolar\u0131 ile ham petrol aras\u0131ndaki geleneksel pozitif korelasyon tamamen bozulmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. West Texas Intermediate ham petrol bu ay %11 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131ksa da, BoC\u2019nin politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle CAD zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 emtia kaynakl\u0131 deste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fekilde bast\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, mevcut a\u015famada petrol g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc CAD almak i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olarak kullanmay\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un ekim ay\u0131nda bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin mevcut 101,37 seviyesinin \u00fczerine yeni zirveleri test etme potansiyeli bulunuyor. \u00d6te yandan, temmuzda %0,7 d\u00fc\u015fen zay\u0131f Kanada perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 BoC\u2019ye s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ekonomik gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rak\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sert esiyor: Parite 1,4113\u2019le temmuz ortas\u0131ndan beri zirvede. Fed\u2019in yeni art\u0131\u015f beklentisi, BoC\u2019nin pasif duru\u015fu ve 150 bp getiri fark\u0131 CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t