Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack, ABD\u2019de enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sorumlulu\u011funda oldu\u011funu belirten Hammack, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fcretim ve talep olarak tan\u0131mlarken, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir meydan okuma oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Hammack ayr\u0131ca enflasyon risklerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi ve hedefin \u00fczerindeki enflasyon ne kadar uzun s\u00fcrerse fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yeniden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmenin o kadar zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa g\u00f6stergeleri, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u015fahin (hawkish) olarak yorumlad\u0131; ancak her zamankinden biraz daha yumu\u015fak bulundu. FXS Speechtracker konu\u015fmay\u0131 10 \u00fczerinden 7,4 ile, tarihsel 7,6 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n hafif alt\u0131nda puanlad\u0131; FXS Fed Sentiment Index ise 0,46 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 148,18\u2019e geriledi ancak n\u00f6tr 100 seviyesinin belirgin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. ABD dolar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi: Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k 101,25 seviyesinde %0,14 y\u00fckselirken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %71 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %55 d\u00fczeyindeydi.<\/p>\n\n
Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun %2 hedefine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc geciktirebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131, d\u00f6viz ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 101,25 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u015fahin duru\u015f, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda portf\u00f6ylerin \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz ortam\u0131na g\u00f6re konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ve opsiyonlar\u0131, daha \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma amac\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilebilir. CME FedWatch \u00fczerinden g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcncel piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %71\u2019e y\u00fckseltti\u011fini; bunun yaln\u0131zca bir hafta \u00f6nceki %55 seviyesine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde dolar endeksinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor; 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde ya\u015fanan %8\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama buna benzer bir \u00f6rnek.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca opsiyon piyasas\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; zira \u015fahin s\u00f6yleme ra\u011fmen USD \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu fiyatlama fark\u0131, koruyucu USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n almak veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc spread stratejileri kurgulamak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunabilir. Bunun yan\u0131nda, son t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi verilerinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,6 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini korumas\u0131, bu defansif konumlanmay\u0131 makro a\u00e7\u0131dan da destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Hammack\u2019tan enflasyon alarm\u0131: Kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 Fed\u2019in %2 hedefine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Piyasa tonu \u015fahin okudu; DXY 101,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. FedWatch ekim zamm\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %71\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t