USD\/CHF, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini %0\u2019da sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 16 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131f b\u0131rakt\u0131. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,27 art\u0131\u015fla 0,8275 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasalar\u0131n ilave Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekledi. SNB, enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k %2\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaki hedefi i\u00e7inde tutmak i\u00e7in mevcut politikan\u0131n uygun oldu\u011funu yineledi; petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle enflasyon tahminini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 revize etse de projeksiyonlar tahmin ufku boyunca %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda 50-75 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta USD\/CHF, yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,8120 ile 0,7950 band\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Momentum y\u00fcksek: 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 68\u2019e yak\u0131n ve MACD pozitif b\u00f6lgede, bu da ko\u015fullar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Destek seviyeleri 0,8200; ard\u0131ndan 0,8122, 0,8045, 0,7947 ve 0,7800 olarak izlenirken, diren\u00e7 0,8350 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, parite 0,8275 civar\u0131nda seyrederken USD\/CHF\u2019te \u00e7ekirdek bir y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korumas\u0131n\u0131; ancak k\u0131sa vadede artabilecek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. SNB politika faizini %0\u2019da tutarken Fed\u2019in g\u00f6rece \u015fahin kalmas\u0131, getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7arak uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor. Bununla birlikte g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 68\u2019e kadar uzamas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131 bir teknik d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan spot al\u0131m yerine, pe\u015fin prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na bull call spread stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken 0,8350\u2019deki ilk diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar. Alternatif olarak, kritik 0,8200 destek seviyesine yak\u0131n put opsiyonu yazmak; hem prim geliri elde etmeye hem de daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetten kademeli giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak ABD ve \u0130svi\u00e7re tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark 300 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015fledi\u011finde \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %3,8 civar\u0131nda seyrederken \u0130svi\u00e7re 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 d\u00fczeyinde; bu tablo, carry trade te\u015fvikini piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6rmezden gelemeyece\u011fi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in USD\/CHF 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 0,7947\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, uzun vadeli (long-dated) call opsiyonlar\u0131 makro bir pozisyon olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa momentumu USD\/CHF\u2019i 0,8350 direncinin net bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rsa, \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ivmelenme bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout) hareketini yakalamak i\u00e7in bu bariyerin hemen \u00fczerine al\u0131\u015f-stop emirleri konumland\u0131rmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Ancak, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur hareketlerini dengelemek i\u00e7in devreye al\u0131nabilen ani SNB m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 stop-loss seviyelerinin s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" SNB faizi %0\u2019da tutunca USD\/CHF 16 ay\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131; Fed beklentileri dolar\u0131 destekliyor. RSI 68: d\u00fczeltme riski var. Destek 0,8200, diren\u00e7 0,8350; bull spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t