ABD cari i\u015flemler dengesi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte -246 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. B\u00f6ylece a\u00e7\u0131k, piyasa beklentisi olan -255 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde (yani daha dar) ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu sonu\u00e7, a\u00e7\u0131klanan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ile piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fc k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veri, ekonomistlerin 2\u00c7 i\u00e7in hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir d\u0131\u015f finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Man\u015fette, a\u00e7\u0131klanan a\u00e7\u0131k ve beklenen seviye d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ilave bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte -246 milyar dolar ile beklentiden daha dar gelmesi, ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik altta yatan talebin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Daha dar a\u00e7\u0131k, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6demeler dengesi finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in analistlerin ilk etapta \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha az yabanc\u0131 sermayeye ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu olumlu ekonomik s\u00fcrprizin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131nda dolar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, 2023 sonundaki benzer daralma d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar endeksinin %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere, yerel para birimini destekleme e\u011filimindedir. Bu arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131; \u00f6zellikle Euro ve Japon yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD makro verileri beklentileri a\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, bu paritelerde ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi ve prim al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejilerin mevcut ko\u015fullarda daha cazip hale gelmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda ise a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n beklentiden daha dar gelmesi, yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerini te\u015fvik etmek amac\u0131yla Fed\u2019in agresif faiz indirimlerine gitmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. CME FedWatch verileri, yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerde kaymaya i\u015faret ederken, getiriler y\u00fcksek seyrini koruduk\u00e7a k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde fiyatlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna y\u00f6nelik olarak Aral\u0131k 2026 Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 veya uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvillerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD 2\u00c7 cari a\u00e7\u0131k -246 milyar dolarla -255 milyar beklentiden daha dar! Dolar i\u00e7in destek sinyali; d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerinde USD call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, Fed\u2019de agresif indirim bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t