Alt\u0131n, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ve daha kuvvetli ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, daha \u015fahin bir Fed beklentilerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret etmesiyle bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. XAU\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,48 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.266 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 15,2 baz puan s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, daha k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler de \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme, k\u0131ymetli metalde kay\u0131plar\u0131n derinle\u015fmesini bir miktar frenledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,29 civar\u0131nda, iki ay\u0131n zirvesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD S&P Global PMI verileri, faiz beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi; bile\u015fik PMI Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 58,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri de tonu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: \u0130lk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 196 bin\u2019den 197 bin\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; beklenti 201 bin\u2019di. Piyasalar, ge\u00e7en haftaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ekim\u2019de bir hamle daha gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlad\u0131; CME FedWatch Tool faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 olarak g\u00f6sterdi (bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %55). Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.311 dolar\u0131n ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.308 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI 42 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede seyretti. Destekler 4.150 dolar ard\u0131ndan 4.000 dolar; diren\u00e7ler ise 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.541 dolar ve 4.700 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen Hazine getirilerinin metal \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131 nedeniyle alt\u0131nda ilave geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.310 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik 50 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, 4.150 dolar destek seviyesini hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak rasyonel bir hamle olacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, getiri sunmayan varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi) sermayenin daha y\u00fcksek getirili bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesiyle ciddi r\u00fczg\u00e2rla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde 58,4 ile be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckselmesi, ekonominin son derece diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 nedeniyle CME FedWatch Tool, Ekim\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken 4.000 dolardaki \u00f6nemli psikolojik seviyeye do\u011fru daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu makro de\u011fi\u015fimi, do\u011frudan kur ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda i\u015flem yaparak da de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. ABD Dolar Endeksi 101,29 ile iki ay\u0131n zirvesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duruyor; bu da dolarda k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapmak veya ters (inverse) tahvil ETF\u2019leri almak, getirilerin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in bir di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc se\u00e7enek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler ve kritik ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ani bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fini unutmadan temkinli kalmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu riskleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda 4.311 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss emirleri yerle\u015ftirmesi gerekir. Bu e\u015fi\u011fin \u00fczerine net bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryomuzu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden kontrol\u00fc ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n sert bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: ABD tahvil getirileri %5\u2019i a\u015farken dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 artt\u0131. XAU\/USD 4.266$\u2019a geriledi; 4.150-4.000$ hedefli putlar, DXY call\u2019lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t