EUR\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1378\u2019e gerileyerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n iki ay\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyretmesiyle iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini test etti. Hareket, enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131ran ve Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD makro verilerinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. S&P Global, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015f faaliyetinin be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en h\u0131zl\u0131 temposunda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; hizmetler ve imalatta e\u015f zamanl\u0131 iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini bildirdi. Fed yetkilileri ge\u00e7en haftaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na desteklerini yineleyerek enflasyon risklerine dikkat \u00e7ekti; piyasalar ise Ekim\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %55 seviyesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Petrol de enflasyon temas\u0131n\u0131 besliyor; ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n
H4 grafikte parite 1,1369\u2019a kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tamamlad\u0131ktan sonra 1,1392\u2019ye toparland\u0131 ve bu seviyeler aras\u0131nda bir konsolidasyon band\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. 1,1396\u2019ya do\u011fru bir hamle h\u00e2len g\u00fcndemde; bunun ard\u0131ndan grafikler 1,1360\u2019a do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyor. MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli. H1 grafikte 1,1369\u2019a yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde yatay seyir g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Stokastik 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ve 80\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm k\u0131sa vadede 1,1396\u2019ya do\u011fru d\u00fczeltme hareketiyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131nda belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum EUR\/USD\u2019yi Eyl\u00fcl 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla 1,1378 ile iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine itiyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, S&P Global ABD Bile\u015fik PMI verisinin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirve olan 54,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi dahil olmak \u00fczere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik verilerle besleniyor. Enflasyon riskleri artarken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda y\u00fckselen oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Fed fonlama faizi beklentilerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; piyasalar art\u0131k Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen gerilimler nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden Brent fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc hedge etmek i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cgreenback\u201d senaryosuna y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmaya odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi devam etmeden \u00f6nce 1,1396 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme tepkisi bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bunu, 1,1396 civar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ve bir sonraki destek seviyesi olan 1,1360\u2019\u0131 hedefleyerek de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumu \u00fczerinden getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in son \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesinde agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali verdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin Ekim ay\u0131nda %2-%3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Almanya imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n daralma b\u00f6lgesinde 43,0 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131 gibi zay\u0131f g\u00f6stergeler de izlenmeli; bu tablo Euro\u2019yu ilave bask\u0131layabilir. Fed ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden yararlanmak, en y\u00fcksek g\u00fcven d\u00fczeyine sahip ana senaryo olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar iki ay\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n: EUR\/USD 1,1378 ile dip test etti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD PMI\u2019\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve Ekim\u2019de Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Teknikte 1,1396 d\u00fczeltme, sonra 1,1360 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t