EUR\/CAD, m\u00fctevaz\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa saatlerinde 1,6060 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Euro, Almanya\u2019dan gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcven verileri sonras\u0131 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. IFO \u0130\u015f Ortam\u0131 Endeksi Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de A\u011fustos\u2019taki 88,8\u2019den 89,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek 89,0 olan beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; Mevcut Durum Endeksi 88,5\u2019ten 89,5\u2019e y\u00fckselirken (beklenti 89,0), Beklentiler Endeksi ise 89,3 tahminine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 90,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7aprazdaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin, temkinli risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisine ba\u011fl\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n destek bulmas\u0131 sayesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyreden emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan, BM Genel Kurulu\u2019nda Tahran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f tehditlere boyun e\u011fmeyece\u011fini, ekonomik kalk\u0131nma i\u00e7in n\u00fckleer teknoloji aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile deniz ablukalar\u0131 devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fi k\u0131s\u0131tlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak Rabobank, ABD Enerji Bakan\u0131 Wright\u2019\u0131n ABD dizel ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fe yaramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD enerji politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ederken; Politico, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir yasak i\u00e7in plan haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. CESifo Grubu taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan IFO, 7.000\u2019den fazla \u015firketle yap\u0131lan ankete dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, kar\u015f\u0131t ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lerin klasik bir \u201c\u00e7eki\u015fme\u201d yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda EUR\/CAD\u2019de 1,6060 diren\u00e7 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl IFO \u0130\u015f Ortam\u0131 Endeksi\u2019nin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde 89,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinde \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor ve bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm genellikle Euro lehine alg\u0131lan\u0131r. Ancak paritenin yukar\u0131 potansiyeli, dalgal\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7 alan diren\u00e7li Kanada Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloyu okumak i\u00e7in, son d\u00f6nemde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilim nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75-80 dolar band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyreden Brent gibi ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerine bakmak gerekiyor. D\u00fcnyadaki s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz ve petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 tehditler, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu jeopolitik risk primi, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u201cLoonie\u201dye do\u011frudan avantaj sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, EUR\/CAD\u2019de \u015fu a\u015famada do\u011frudan y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m emirleri olduk\u00e7a riskli hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin olas\u0131 dizel ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131 ihtimalini de fiyatlamak gerekiyor; bu unsur enerji piyasas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 tedirgin tutarken CAD\u2019in cazibesini de art\u0131r\u0131yor. Resm\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bir yasa\u011f\u0131n uygulanabilirli\u011fini k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmserken, 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olas\u0131 bir plan\u0131n g\u00fcndemde olmas\u0131 ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan arz endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Tarihsel veriler, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki ani k\u00fcresel de\u011fi\u015fimlerin, Kanada Dolar\u0131 gibi enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimlerinde g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde %3 ila %5\u2019lik h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu dengeli ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kuvvetler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara basit spot uzun\/k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131; bunun yerine volatilite odakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerine y\u00f6nelmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli \u201ciron condor\u201d stratejileri, EUR\/CAD mevcut band\u0131nda yatay seyrederken zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Brent\u2019in 80 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik diren\u00e7lerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde ise, kurda olas\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131ca CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge\u2019e ge\u00e7ilmesi uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz IFO verisi Euro\u2019yu destekledi, EUR\/CAD 1,6060\u2019a toparland\u0131. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve olas\u0131 ABD dizel yasa\u011f\u0131 petrol\u00fc canl\u0131 tutarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc CAD\u2019le y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t