Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda %0,17 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 51.780 seviyesine geriledi. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,34 kay\u0131pla yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.750\u2019ye inerken, Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 30.610 civar\u0131na geriledi. Hareket, S&P Global PMI verilerinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131na; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yeni sipari\u015flere ek olarak girdi ve \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fiyat enflasyonunun \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesine ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir kez daha ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; Ekim\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6rt\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %55,4\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %69\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc zay\u0131f nakit seansta Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nin %0,68, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn %0,75 ve Nasdaq Bile\u015fik\u2019in %1,13 d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ivmesine dair sinyal aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ABD haftal\u0131k \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisine \u00e7evrildi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ileti\u015fim hizmetleri, kamu hizmetleri ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim sekt\u00f6rleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. Emtia taraf\u0131nda ise, ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisinin belirsizli\u011fini korumas\u0131 nedeniyle ham petrol \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 potansiyeli \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Tahran n\u00fckleer tutumunu yineleyip ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ablukalar s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fi k\u0131s\u0131tlayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri gerilerken ve S&P 500 son bir ay\u0131n en sert g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015fken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nceli\u011fi derhal savunmac\u0131 pozisyonlanma olmal\u0131. \u0130nat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun tetikleyebilece\u011fi ek hisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Nasdaq 100 ve S&P 500 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel piyasa verileri, y\u00fcksek enflasyon rejimlerinde S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, takip eden haftalarda hisse volatilitesinin genellikle %15 ila %20 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %69\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, faiz t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu \u015fahin de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon de\u011ferlendirebilir veya SOFR (Gecelik Teminatl\u0131 Finansman Oran\u0131) getirileri \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alabilir. Tarihsel olarak PMI girdi fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, merkez bankas\u0131 vakalar\u0131n %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irdi; bu da \u015fu a\u015famada faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na eri\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlamakla tehdit etmesiyle, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya (breakout) haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 arz kaynakl\u0131 %10\u2019luk fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) Brent veya WTI ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PMI s\u00fcrprizi ve enflasyon \u015foku! Dow vadeliler %0,17, S&P 500 %0,34, Nasdaq 100 %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Ekim Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %69\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t